Poll monitor: Labour dips

By the editor of BBC Political Research, David Cowling

Wednesday's ICM/Guardian poll found Labour's share at 44% (down 3% on February), the Conservatives at 35% (up 3%) and the Lib Dems on 16% (up 1%).

Its findings will add to the debate about when the next election should be called, not least because it registers the first Labour lead below 10% since early last November.

Last month ICM caused despondency among Conservatives by recording a 5% increase in Labour's lead: this month's 9% lead is more in line with ICM's findings of December and January.

The poll found that 52% of respondents thought the proposed 3 May general election date should be abandoned, compared with 40% saying it should still be held then.

Foot-and-mouth

And when it came to the question of whether the public approve or disapprove of the way the government has handled the foot-and-mouth outbreak, 39% approved and 46% disapproved.

On the surface then this latest ICM poll should have given encouragement to the Conservatives.

However, applying the data to their "variometer" (a model for election outcomes which takes account of regional differences in swing), ICM found a resulting Labour majority of 145.

Hague under pressure

This model forecast a gain of only 36 seats for the Conservatives at the next election: a figure which, if true, would certainly put Mr Hague's leadership under threat.

Last Sunday's ICM/News of the World poll offered some interesting information about public opinion in marginal seats.

ICM sampled 1,502 respondents between 14-16 March in 139 seats where the icumbants majority was 10% or less.

Killing fields

Traditionally these seats comprise the electoral killing fields where government's are made or broken and the poll suggests that Labour's vote has increased in all marginals by just over 3% compared with 1997.

Conservative support has also increased, but only by 0.9%.

ICM identified the Lib Dems as the principal losers, with their support down 2.2% and they project that this would cost them 18 of their 46 seats from 1997 (17 to the Conservatives and one to Labour).

The News of the World predicted that if such figures were repeated at the next election then Labour's majority would be virtually unchanged.