NI politicians saddled up for election race

By Jim Fitzpatrick BBC NI Politics Show presenter

For the first time since the 1920s, voters in Britain are facing a three-horse race for power at Westminster. Even before a vote is cast the shape of politics seems dramatically changed.

It is a little bit more complicated than that in Northern Ireland and always has been. But it is also a very different election campaign to any fought before.

As ever, there are essentially two horse races: one for orange jerseys, the others in green. In the unionist steeplechase there are three runners and riders: the DUP, the Ulster Conservatives and Unionists and the TUV. In the nationalist race, it is simply the SDLP and Sinn Fein.

So far so simple - two races, two sets of winners. But it gets more complicated at constituency level. For the two races are interconnected in a number of areas where what happens within the orange race affects what happens in the green one, and vice versa.

Political parties in NI will want a winner with Tony McCoy's first-past-the-post qualities

Of course there is Fermanagh South Tyrone where the main unionist parties have pulled their horses out in favour of what they hope is a thoroughbred winner to romp home against the nationalist nags.

There is South Belfast where the reverse situation exists through the unilateral action of Sinn Fein.

But there are other constituencies where the jockey entering in the winner's enclosure could change and could even be wearing a different coloured jersey.

Favourites

Sinn Fein is hoping to steal through the middle in North Belfast and the SDLP is even talking its chances in East Londonderry thanks to boundary changes - although you are really talking outside chances here.

And other seats will see fiercely run contests between the original bookies' favourites and some surprising late entries from the Ulster Conservatives and Unionists: their party leader entering the fray in South Antrim; a former Ireland rugby international star in East Belfast and a Freddie Mercury impersonator in Upper Bann.

Of course, the DUP have had all the training and experience. They had nine winners last time and are predicting 10 this time around. But they face tougher competition. Even the heartland of North Antrim is no longer easy going with the TUV in the fray.

A number of horses are carrying particular handicap weights that could slow them down. And blinkers? They are often worn by the spectators in Northern Ireland, but the anecdotal evidence feeding back at this early stage is that voters may be taking a broader look around them this time.

This Sunday on The Politics Show, we focus on the unionist race. We are in Portstewart on the North Coast with candidates Mike Nesbitt of the Ulster Conservative and Unionists, the DUP's Jeffrey Donaldson and TUV's Keith Harbinson.

Jim

PS - The unfortunate picture of SDLP leader Margaret Ritchie wearing headgear and white coat at her manifesto launch in West Belfast printing factory reminded me of why Peter Mandelson is so admired for his mastery of the dark arts of PR. Confronted with similar requirements on a factory tour as NI Secretary of State, Mr Mandelson was forced into a silly hair net as per regulation. However, aides were at the ready with builder's helmets to place on top. Much more acceptable to be pictured in a helmet than a hair net.

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