Confidence and policing and justice

By Jim Fitzpatrick BBC NI Politics Show

It seems Martin McGuinness doesn't really like Peter Robinson.

More importantly, though, it appears that he doesn't rate him. And that's why devolution is currently under threat.

It's no longer about policing and justice. It's all about confidence. Not the confidence of the unionist electorate in our institutions, but the confidence - or lack of it - that Sinn Fein has in the DUP.

That's why Mr McGuinness framed his comments this week in the context of the St Andrews Agreement.

The DUP, he alleged, were not living up to their commitments.

The specific issue may be policing and justice, but the fault-line runs wider and deeper than that.

"The DUP are in default and it is certainly my view that agreements that are not implemented are worthless," the deputy first minister declared.

What he's saying is that the St Andrews Agreement is currently worthless. This means he believes that everything flowing from St Andrews is worthless too.

Of course, this could all be Sinn Fein bluff and bluster. Didn't Gerry Adams previously put a one year deadline on the devolution of policing and justice that has long since passed?

But the tactics as we approach Sinn Fein's Christmas deadline are different. The Sinn Fein president is quiet.

'Stage is being set'

It is believed his party chairperson, Declan Kearney, will be next to speak on the issue, this Sunday.

He is the guy who recently warned of potential "free fall" if there wasn't a deal soon. What he says this weekend is unlikely to be any more positive.

There are no explicit threats to walk, because that provides the DUP with too much ammunition. But the threat is there, no less.

The stage is being set for a "more in sorrow than in anger" departure from government by Sinn Fein.

Mr McGuinness also spoke about Ian Paisley this week. He clearly likes him. He also seems to rate him.

Such flattery is probably guaranteed to infuriate Mr Robinson and Mr Paisley in equal measure, but his purpose is to highlight his core problem.

He wants a unionist leader he can do business with. From what he has been saying recently, it seems that he no longer believes Robinson is that leader.

An election is unlikely to produce a new nationalist leader, but it could - eventually - deliver a new unionist leader.

That is the calculation Martin McGuinness is making at present. We may know his answer soon enough.

On Sunday's Politics Show we talk to Bertie Ahern about Fianna Fail's march north and the mounting crisis.

See you midday

Jim

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