Deal or no deal for Fianna Fail?

By Martina Purdy
Political correspondent, BBC NI

Fianna Fail's announcement that is it beginning a year-long debate on organising on a 32-county basis has certainly led to plenty of chatter north of the border, not least among the SDLP.

Mark Durkan would not rule out a merger

But is it a case of teeth chattering inside the SDLP?

Or is it three cheers for a new partner that can perhaps bolster its brand of nationalism in future elections against Sinn Fein?

Is this news an opportunity or a threat?

Mark Durkan has nominally welcomed the move, but to some observers his welcome came through gritted teeth as he told the BBC that he ruled nothing out.

Mr Durkan, no doubt, is conscious that there are many in his party - some say the majority - who will relish the prospect of closer relations, even a merger with Fianna Fail in future.

One joked: "Labour might be our sister party, but Fianna Fail is our brother."

Others however inside the SDLP will be quite hostile to the concept.

Indeed, there is a section of the SDLP whose affinity lies with Fine Gael and others still who take very seriously the fact that Labour is the SDLP's sister party.

Some insiders say this Labour "camp" includes the leader Mark Durkan.

Yet again some SDLP - Fianna Fail sympathisers see the recent deal between the Irish Labour Party and Sinn Fein in the Seanad, which brought Sinn Fein's Pearse Doherty into the Dublin chamber, as evidence that it is time to break with Labour.

One insider said it was an opportunity to argue that its sister party had no qualms about dealing with the SDLP's great rival.

The news that Fianna Fail was looking north was relayed last Monday to senior SDLP members who are leading an internal review group.

These members included the former SDLP MLA and minister, Sean Farren.

Dermot Ahern was under pressure to organise in Northern Ireland

The Irish foreign minister apparently told the SDLP that he had been holding the line against internal party pressure for some time on the issue of organising in Northern Ireland.

And it is claimed Mr Ahern gave two reasons: firstly, for the sake of the peace process and stability in Northern Ireland and secondly to ensure the SDLP was not undermined.

However, these reasons, Mr Ahern said, no longer stood and he himself now agreed the time was right to move.

One senior SDLP member was certainly delighted when the announcement was made.

"There is an historic inevitability about this," he said. "There are those in the party who believe the SDLP's historic function is over, as a party holding the line for democratic politics."

He added: "This may be the final nail in the coffin for the SDLP."

Whether this assertion is correct or not, it is at the crux of a debate that will take place inside and outside the SDLP in the months ahead.

Mark Durkan is shrewd enough to know he cannot stop this debate and has therefore kept his options open.

He is also on record in recent years as saying that a realignment in Irish politics is going to happen.

However, had Mr Durkan been enthusiastic about Fianna Fail's announcement, might it not have been handled differently?

Mr Durkan took hours to respond formally to the news.

There are those in the party who believe the SDLP's historic function is over, as a party holding the line for democratic politics Senior SDLP member

Sinn Fein was much quicker in issuing its statement, delighting in the move.

Sinn Fein insists Fianna Fail's plan fits in with its desire for an all-Ireland dynamic.

Gerry Adams's party no doubt also feels confident that Fianna Fail is more likely to impact on the SDLP.

The party is also mindful that Bertie Ahern's green machine is now coming into Sinn Fein's citadel and may find the same challenges north of the border that Sinn Fein has faced south of the border.

The SDLP was formed out of the political unrest of the 1960s and the civil rights movement.

It displaced the old nationalist party led by Eddie McAteer.

So has its time come also?

Or is there a brand loyality there that will not be so easily pushed aside by Fianna Fail?

That depends in large part on the people inside the SDLP and how enthusiastic they prove to be about this announcement.

Certainly there are hard questions still to be answered.

Not least, if Fianna Fail is not interested in contesting Westminster elections or indeed representing constituents at Westminster.

Where does that leave the SDLP's policy of taking seats at Westminster? Are the two parties compatible?

What does Fianna Fail do if it gets into government on both sides of the border? Whose interests come first?

The Belfast-versus-Shannon debate on Aer Lingus flights at least was a practice run for such thorny issues.

If nothing else, Dermot Ahern says he anticipates a healthy and forward looking debate.

He can also expect one inside the SDLP.