Can Paisley see forest for trees?

By Gareth Gordon
BBC NI political correspondent

There's a scene in the film Forrest Gump which, according to one DUP stalwart, accurately sums up the relationship between the party and its one, and so far only, leader.

Ian Paisley's assembly election slogan was 'Getting it Right'

Drill sergeant: "Gump! What's your sole purpose in this army?"

Forest Gump: "To do whatever you tell me, drill sergeant!"

Drill sergeant: "God damn it, Gump! You're a god damn genius!"

That may be slightly unfair to fine political brains like Peter Robinson and Nigel Dodds who have certainly flourished under Ian Paisley's leadership, but you get the point.

For all of his party's existence it's been Paisley's way or the highway. And with one or two notable exceptions that's been just fine by most.

But the drill sergeant may be about to ask his party to do something most thought they would never have to do - go into government with their arch-enemies in Sinn Fein.

"Doc's mad keen, keener than Peter," says one source who remains to be convinced such a course of action is the right course.

What if we jump now and there's another Colombia or another Northern Bank. We're going to look very stupid DUP source

The reason for such a road to Damascus conversion is the source of much speculation within the party and without. The various theories go like this...

Could it be, wonder some, that he's been apprised of the consequences of not doing the deal and it's too awful a vista for him to even share with his party?

Could it be that he woke up one morning and decided to lead his people to the promised land at the twilight of his political career?

Or could it be that he's "power hungry"? Unlikely, say those who believe that if that was his motivation, he'd have done it a long time ago.

Mr Brown met the four main parties on Thursday Enlarge Image

Whatever the explanation most people are agreed that Ian Paisley has reached the point of doing the unthinkable and completing a remarkable political journey well ahead of some of those who have been every inch of the way with him.

"I'm having sleepless nights," says one elected representative.

"What if we jump now and there's another Colombia or another Northern Bank. We're going to look very stupid."

Another says they might resign unless there's eleventh-hour progress on issues like Sinn Fein's attitude to policing, a default mechanism for dealing with parties who break the Stormont rules or a financial package to smooth the passage into government.

Ian Paisley is caught between the devil of Tony Blair's devolution demand and the deep blue sea of his party deal sceptics. He may decide to play for time yet again Gareth Gordon

"I was elected on the slogan of 'Getting It Right'. Well, how can I go back to my constituency and explain to those who voted for me that we got it wrong?"

But don't make the mistake of assuming the DUP could be heading for an Ulster Unionist-style implosion. This is not the Ulster Unionist Party and such comments as those above are made more in sorrow than in anger.

No-one in the DUP mutters any dark thoughts about Ian Paisley in the way that marked much of the open hostility in the Ulster Unionists towards David Trimble.

"So many people owe Doc so much - none of this is personal," says one, "it's not a question of trusting the Doc."

If Doc decides to push this through he will win, there's not the slightest bit of doubt about that, He won't even have to play his ace card - 'back me or sack me' DUP source

Likewise, whatever he thinks his party should do now, the last thing Ian Paisley wants to risk is party unity.

That's why a crunch meeting of the officers went on to midnight this week trying to agree a position everyone could buy into while getting them over the tricky problem of getting around a government deadline for devolution which has, so far, proved stubbornly resistant to slippage.

The issue could come to a head at a meeting of the party's ruling executive on Saturday. "It's the most important meeting the DUP has ever held," said one representative.

Ian Paisley is caught between the devil of Tony Blair's devolution demand and the deep blue sea of his party deal sceptics. He may decide to play for time yet again.

Yet even those less convinced than he of doing the deal concede that where the DUP is concerned he can choose his next step in the certainty of victory.

"If Doc decides to push this through he will win, there's not the slightest bit of doubt about that, He won't even have to play his ace card - 'back me or sack me'," said one.

Those who don't like it and may be contemplating a future beyond the DUP need only look at the recent derisory election results of those former party members who stood on an anti-St Andrews ticket.

Of course the even more famous line from Forrest Gump goes, "Life's a box of chocolates... you never know what you're gonna get."

At least two separate movie makers are said to be interested in bringing Ian Paisley's life story to the big screen. They'd be wise to wait before scripting the ending... they never know what they're gonna get.