Paisley nomination 'smart tactics'

Analysis By Kevin Connolly BBC Ireland correspondent

As DUP leader Ian Paisley refuses Sinn Fein's nomination to be Northern Ireland's first minister, BBC News website looks at efforts to restore devolution.

Ian Paisley reacted scornfully to his nomination by Sinn Fein

It was perhaps the collapse of communism that began it.

Journalists and historians seeking to convey the scale and nature of unexpected changes reached for the phrase "development that would have been unthinkable, say, 10 or 20 years ago".

I've used the phrase often enough myself but I must confess I wish now that I'd held it back for today - when even the most jaded connoisseur of the improbable must have raised an eyebrow at the news that Gerry Adams had nominated Ian Paisley to be first minister of Northern Ireland.

It's hard to know where to begin de-layering the incongruities.

Gerry Adams has been a key figure in Irish republicanism for more than 30 years - he was temporarily released from internment in 1972 to join the IRA delegation flown to London for secret talks with the Conservative government of the day.

He doesn't think Northern Ireland should exist as a political entity. And you can be quite sure he doesn't want to live in a province which reflects the views and values of Ian Paisley.

At the height of one round of power-sharing talks a while back he referred to a widespread belief in his community that Dr Paisley had "started the troubles".

No secret

Ian Paisley, for his part, has left behind the incendiary rhetoric which was once his trademark.

But he still represents the most outspoken brand of political unionism in Northern Ireland. And, crucially, he makes no secret of his belief that Gerry Adams and Sinn Fein aren't fit for government because of their links to the terrorism and criminality of the IRA.

Tactically, this was smart stuff from Gerry Adams

Tactically, this was smart stuff from Gerry Adams. He knows the electoral arithmetic of Northern Ireland means that the first minister must come from the largest party - and that's Dr Paisley's DUP.

In putting forward the nomination himself, he put a statesmanlike gloss on the inevitable - and he also smoked out Dr Paisley - establishing on the record that it's the DUP and not Sinn Fein which remains unwilling to share power.

Not that anyone was in any doubt of that.

The exchange itself was brief, almost cursory. But somehow that only served to throw the incongruity into sharper focus.

Mr Adams made his nomination of Dr Paisley, and the DUP leader dismissed it scornfully with the words: "Certainly not!"

Best gloss

Tellingly, when the speaker Eileen Bell called for further nominations, there was a moment of profound silence.

Everyone knows that there will not be any form of power-sharing government without the participation of Ian Paisley - the province's immediate political future is in his hands.

Ian Paisley didn't sound to me like a man on the cusp of compromise

When it was all over, the Sinn Fein president put the best gloss he could on the situation saying simply: "We will return to this with all speed."

That certainly shows determination, but it also hints at the underlying weakness of the nationalist and republican position.

A desire for power-sharing puts them in the hands of their historic enemy, and there's nothing they can do to push him or persuade him into devolved government with them.

Certainly afterwards, Ian Paisley didn't sound to me like a man on the cusp of compromise.

He said simply: "The answer of Ulster is 'no'.

"There is no place in any government in this United Kingdom for personnel like that.

"They are out and they are out for ever. They have to do the changing, not us."

Optimism gift

Holding the post of secretary of state for Northern Ireland in recent times has demanded a gift bordering on genius for seeing hints of flexibility where the rest of us can only see refusal set in stone.

The bluntness of Ian Paisley's dismissal of the very idea of sharing power with Sinn Fein or even sitting on a committee to discuss the outstanding issues will test Peter Hain's gift for optimism to the limit.

He might see some prospect of finding a deal by the end of November which Tony Blair has set as a time limit.

But for now, at least, no-one else can see it.