DUP ready to play for high stakes

By Gareth Gordon BBC Northern Ireland political correspondent

A luxury hotel amid "some of the most majestic and regal scenery in Ireland" sounds like a perfectly acceptable way of spending two days in late April.

Peter Robinson will head the delegation to Killarney

But the men and women of the British-Irish Inter-Parliamentary Body are about to have their peace shattered by a visit from, of all people, the DUP.

Not that they seem to mind the intrusion of press and media focus this cataclysmic happening will bring.

"Democratic Unionists to attend British-Irish Meeting" - that was the bold black headline on the news release trumpeting the coup, just in case it passed any of us by.

"Four leading members of the Democratic Unionist Party will travel south next week to join politicians from all parts of these islands participating in the twice-yearly conference of the important British-Irish Inter-Parliamentary Body...," the release went on, none too subtly.

So we can take it this little-known body is very pleased indeed.

They are not getting the Big Man himself, mind you.

That would have been just too much to hope for. Still, a cast list which includes two Robinsons, a Donaldson and a Dodds is not to be sniffed at.

In the 80s, at the height of the "Ulster Says No" campaign following the Anglo-Irish Agreement, I was sight-seeing in the Ring of Kerry when I spied someone I thought was the double of a prominent DUP politician who was a regular at the protests.

I went over and said: "Are you --- ------'s brother?"

And the startled man replied: "Yes. You won't tell him I was here will you?"

I didn't - at least not until recently.

Peter Hain can sound like good cop and bad cop at the same time

Now, 20 years on, the still prominent party member will see some very familiar faces indeed next Monday staring out of his television screen amid Killarney's lakes so blue.

Oh how times have changed!

The BIIPB was established in 1990 - a child of the Anglo-Irish Agreement which the DUP hated and still hates so much.

It consists of members of the UK Parliament, the Dail (Irish Parliament) as well as others from the Scottish Parliament and the Welsh and Northern Ireland Assemblies.

The Tynwald in the Isle of Man and the States of Guernsey and Jersey are also represented.

Neither unionist party has ever taken up its seats.

And while the DUP denies it is ending the boycott, Monday's appearance, when the party will make a presentation, is rightly being seen as another one of those small but significant steps the party is making as it gradually moves closer and closer to the middle ground.

They call it "outreach".

Sure, they have already been to Dublin to meet the Taoiseach.

And they met him in London; and they have shared TV and radio studios with Sinn Fein.

"So what's the fuss?" they will argue. Except that they know perfectly well we will interpret it as another sign that glasnost is well and truly alive - and what's more, they will be quite happy for us to do so.

They will get brickbats from the Ulster Unionists. But more importantly they will get kudos from the wider political world - for doing, in effect, very little.

As well as the presentation, there will also be an opportunity for members to ask questions - though through the chair.

And one of those members is the Sinn Fein TD for Louth, Arthur Morgan, who just a few years ago, stirred up just a little controversy when he was quoted as saying that what he called "active militarism" would resume in 15 to 20 years if Britain did not take the opportunity afforded by the peace process to withdraw from Ireland.

And don't forget, all of this is taking place at the time when the DUP is supposed to be cowering under the threat of British-Irish "joint stewardship" of the process in the event of failure to form an executive with Sinn Fein by 24 November.

In the absence of agreement the assembly will be closed

Tony Blair's bad cop was replaced by Peter Hain's good cop on Tuesday when he stressed in the House of Commons there was no question of joint authority.

Sometimes, of course, Mr Hain can sound like good cop and bad cop all at the same time.

As the government flails around for answers, he leaves the carrot lying around in full view even as he wields the stick.

The DUP is doing a very good job of looking non-perplexed by all of this.

The party of old would certainly not have been traipsing to Killarney in such circumstances.

When Peter Robinson told Mr Hain that what Messrs Blair and Ahern had said in Armagh was a "crass foolish threat" but that the DUP would not be timetabled into government, there is every reason for believing him.

In the absence of a deal, the government will surely carry out its threat to shut the assembly and stop members' pay. They can hardly do anything else.

But which party would suffer most?

Hardly the DUP which tells everyone who listens that they currently have nine MPs at Westminster anyway, thank you very much.

And as for Mr Hain's warning that in the event of failure the government "will be forced to close the book on devolution for the foreseeable future." Really?

So what happens if Ian Paisley calls up next April - or even later - and tells the government he is now ready to do business?

After all, if the Northern Ireland secretary can change his mind several times on things like assembly elections, surely "the book" on the assembly itself could be re-opened if the result really was the big prize of putting the DUP and Sinn Fein in government together - albeit belatedly.

Of course the government may not be bluffing.

The DUP's stance may well result in, at very least, a greener form of direct rule for a very long time.

It is a high stakes game and the Ulster Unionists will be hoping they fall flat on their faces.

But so far, the DUP is maintaining its poker face.

And on Monday afternoon in Killarney, it will play its next hand.