Talks and public apathy gather pace

By Mark Devenport BBC Northern Ireland political editor

Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern meet in Downing Street next Wednesday to review progress in their efforts to restore devolution.

Tony Blair and Bertie Ahern meet on Wednesday

Perhaps they should review the video of last Thursday's talks at Stormont chaired by the political development minister, David Hanson.

Talks teams emerged into the Stormont Great Hall to impart their message to a waiting press pack which consisted of me and one colleague.

More than one politician expressed the view that they didn't know what the talks were meant to be about.

Ostensibly, Mr Hansen is trying to reach agreement on possible changes to the architecture of the Stormont assembly.

This is a bit like adjusting the spark plugs on a car that doesn't have any wheels.

Even if a deal is done on the accountability of ministers, what does it matter if there isn't any prospect of such ministers ever regaining office?

Everyone knows that the only aspect of the 2004 Comprehensive Agreement which will make any difference in the short term will be if the government takes the power referred to in the 2004 deal to set up a shadow assembly.

Whether anyone outside the dwindling press pack and the politicians themselves cares about the quest to restore Stormont is a moot point

Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams told both prime ministers this week that republicans want nothing to do with such a transitional arrangement.

But if a shadow assembly does not feature in the blueprint which the governments are working on, it's hard to think what does.

The key question appears to be whether nationalists would boycott a shadow assembly.

Pressed on this point, Sinn Fein's chief negotiator, Martin McGuinness, told me he wouldn't pre-empt his party's tactics, but if the government was to push ahead with the idea on a take-it-or-leave-it basis, that would be a very grave situation.

To placate nationalists, the governments would have to put a time limit on any shadow period, with a strict deadline for moving towards a power-sharing executive.

Ian Paisley says he won't tolerate being put into "some form of straightjacket".

Whether anyone outside the dwindling press pack and the politicians themselves cares about the quest to restore Stormont is a moot point.

Gerry Adams met business leaders at Stormont this week to discuss the cost of direct rule.

Scepticism

But a recent newsletter from the Bank of Ireland argued that there is "precious little evidence to suggest that the form of governance makes an iota of difference to the growth performance of the economy".

The bank says: "It is interesting to observe the vociferous political lobby for an early return (of Stormont).

"In business circles generally, it is difficult to detect the same clamour, a view borne out of the 1998-2002 experience of devolution marked by decision shyness and relatively little achievement on economic policy."

That scepticism is almost certainly not confined to the business community.

However, with Tony Blair still keen to tie up the loose ends in Northern Ireland before he departs Downing Street, the governments continue to search for an elusive settlement.

One sign of growing haste is that such a patient character as the former Secretary of State, Paul Murphy, has now told the BBC's Politics Show that the government should call the assembly back and give it six weeks to form a government.

That's the option favoured by nationalists but one which Mr Murphy's successor, Peter Hain, has specifically ruled out.

Will the governments have the guts to throw down the gauntlet to the parties with a shadow assembly or some other option which might break the deadlock?

Or are we doomed to more obscure talks at Stormont, playing out against a backdrop of public indifference?