Is Blair on the run?

By Mark Devenport BBC Northern Ireland political editor

It was dark on College Green opposite Westminster when I headed out to interview some local MPs about Tony Blair's landmark defeat on his proposal to detain terror suspects for 90 days.

A senior DUP figure couldn't disguise his glee.

Tony Blair: Is his time up?

"I feel the hand of history on my shoulder" he said echoing the prime minister's much mocked sound-bite at the time of the Good Friday Agreement.

The rumour mill had been working all day that the government was courting the DUP with offers of concessions over the Royal Irish Regiment.

The SDLP leader, Mark Durkan, took a personal phone call from Mr Blair suggesting his three MPs might abstain, an offer the Foyle MP rejected.

The DUP said they hadn't been offered anything for their nine votes.

Instead, they claimed to be more interested in shoring up Conservative and Liberal Democrat opposition to the Northern Ireland Offences Bill.

In their view, the bill provides an effective "amnesty" for on-the-run paramilitaries and others accused of historic crimes during the Troubles.

At the start of the day it had looked like smart news management for the government to publish the controversial bill just as all eyes were turned elsewhere on the terror vote.

But by tea-time it looked less clever.

The Northern Ireland Offences Bill hasn't been particularly high up the agenda so far as London commentators are concerned.

Even if the DUP had been made some kind of attractive offer, it would have been tough for them to rush to the government's aid on the very day they were showing Aileen Quinton, whose mother was killed in the Enniskillen bombing, and other terrorist victims, around the remembrance garden at Westminster Abbey.

Either way, even the DUP's nine votes would not have saved the prime minister.

So is Tony Blair damaged goods, and if so what might a Gordon Brown succession mean for Northern Ireland?

The DUP's Nigel Dodds believes "there is no doubt that the prime minister is now entering the latter stage of his premiership".

He added: "It is clear all sides at Westminster recognise that power is seeping away from him in anticipation of the coming day when in all likelihood Chancellor Gordon Brown will become leader."

Mark Durkan has urged the prime minister to listen to his critics

Mark Durkan told the BBC's Inside Politics programme that he "didn't necessarily" think Mr Blair's authority has disappeared, "provided he listens to his critics".

Nevertheless, he was prepared to entertain some questions about Gordon Brown, expressing the view that the chancellor might have proved more effective than Mr Blair in handling the disruptive tactics of some local parties since the Good Friday Agreement.

For now though, it is Tony Blair who has to steer controversial measures like school and health reforms through Westminster.

The Northern Ireland Offences Bill hasn't been particularly high up the agenda so far as London commentators are concerned.

But there is no doubt that it has the potential to provide the prime minister with another parliamentary headache.

The terms of the bill stand traditional notions of justice on their head and there are rumours that senior figures in the judiciary are extremely unhappy about the proposed Special Tribunal, a "court without consequence".

In the Commons, Tony Blair may still enjoy a sufficiently strong majority when the magic words "peace process" are mentioned.

But in the Lords, the Conservatives and Liberal Democrats have the numbers to inflict damage.

It is hard to imagine this extremely contentious piece of legislation making it on to the statute book without a significant number of amendments.