Deals and delays - the NI way

By Brian Rowan
BBC Northern Ireland security editor

On this day a year ago, General John de Chastelain was in the company of the IRA.

It was to have been another of those days in the peace process.

It is one year since the choreography over IRA guns stalled

The IRA would say and do something, as would the governments and, on the basis of all of that, David Trimble and the Ulster Unionist Party would go back into the power-sharing government with Sinn Fein.

It was 21 October 2003 - the day on which de Chastelain and his American colleague Andrew Sens last witnessed the IRA put "arms beyond use".

But the two men from the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD) were restricted in what they could say because of a confidentiality agreement with the IRA.

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A sequence, leading to the restoration of devolution, had been carefully choreographed but things got out of step.

We had guns (decommissioned by the IRA) but still no government.

David Trimble said he had not heard enough about IRA disarming

Trimble said he had not heard enough from de Chastelain and Sens, so he put the deal on hold.

But, in elections since, the DUP took the lead role within unionism and became the main player on that side in the business of deal-making - not any old deal this time, but, if it works, something that could be viewed as the deal of all deals.

Why? Because of who and what it will involve. The plans are:

• to remove the IRA and its guns from the stage;
• to bring about a power-sharing government involving the DUP and Sinn Fein;
• to scale down the Army's presence in Northern Ireland to that of a peace-time garrison;
• to transfer policing and justice powers into the hands of local politicians and,
• to win republican support for the new police service and structures in Northern Ireland.

The process is not there yet, but there is a belief that it will get there.

The question is whether it can be done before the next Westminster election or whether it will have to wait until afterwards.

No-one is talking out loud on this, but, in the background, there is now a whisper that the out-working of any new deal may come later rather than sooner.

Some of the biggest issues are unresolved and according to one source: "The last few days have helped clarify the problems, and clarify just how difficult it is going to be to resolve them."

If ministers Ahern and Murphy have said there is going to be a breakthrough, then clearly the logic of their position is that this must be coming from the DUP - I see no evidence of that, though it is possible Gerry Adams Sinn Fein president

This is not to say that the political towel has been thrown in.

Another source spoke to me of "considerable progress" being made since the Leeds Castle talks - this in terms of clarifying and having "more certainty" about the IRA position.

There was still "more work to be done" but the process had not reached an "insurmountable obstacle".

"Movement on one area could bring generosity on another," the source said.

So a deal in weeks rather than months is still what is being worked on, but this long, long negotiation is running out of time.

Some weeks ago in those talks at Leeds Castle, the British and Irish Governments were given an outline of the likely IRA contribution in the context of a "comprehensive" deal being reached.

It was a spoken assessment, given by Gerry Adams and Martin McGuinness - two men in positions to know how the IRA leadership, its Army Council, thinks and acts.

The governments seemed satisfied that something big - bigger than anything before - was now on offer, but writing in the New York-based Irish Voice newspaper this week, Adams poses this question:

"If the governments are satisfied with what they have proclaimed the IRA is going to do, then who are they waiting on?"

Adams then answers his question that it is "obviously the DUP".

He continues: "If ministers (Dermot) Ahern and (Paul) Murphy have said there is going to be a breakthrough, then clearly the logic of their position is that this must be coming from the DUP.

"I see no evidence of that, though it is possible."

Adams wrote this article after his party held intensive talks with British and Irish officials on Monday and Tuesday of this week - talks which involved the prime minister's chief of staff Jonathan Powell and Michael Collins from the Taoiseach's office.

The DUP is also in constant contact with officials of both governments.

The Independent Monitoring Commission to deliver report

The governments have said the contacts will continue, but we don't know for how much longer and we don't know if there is enough time left to piece together this deal before the next Westminster election.

This time it will take several months for any agreed sequence to play out.

As the talking continues, the Independent Monitoring Commission (IMC) - a kind of ceasefire watchdog - is preparing to make its second report on continuing paramilitary activity.

The four commissioners will meet in Belfast on Thursday, Friday and Saturday before passing their findings to the British and Irish Governments.

According to one source, it will show a "gentle diminution" in IRA activity since the IMC last reported in April.

Report

But the most important report from the Commission will be the one that follows any new deal, because it will be that document that will be scrutinised for confirmation that all IRA activities have ended.

The IMC's second report - the one going to the governments this weekend - may be used by some politicians to ask questions of the IRA and about its future intentions, but it will not be a deal breaker.

Just a few days ago, there was a lot of speculation that a deal was imminent and, as the intensive contacts continued, we were told this could be "a week to watch".

So far, the week and the talking has confirmed the problems that still exist and that still stand in the way of that deal of all deals being done.

The negotiators have not yet had their last roll of the dice, but they know, that in terms of trying to find a winning combination, time is running out.