Hearts and Minds poll: The details

Stormont under lock and key (Cartoon by Ian Knox)

An opinion poll has suggested support for the Good Friday Agreement is at its lowest in Northern Ireland since it was signed in 1998.

The poll was commissioned by the BBC Northern Ireland political programme, Hearts and Minds.

The poll followed the suspension of the power-sharing executive at midnight on Monday after allegations of IRA intelligence gathering in the Northern Ireland Office.

It is not known when power will be restored to the Stormont administration.

The poll also revealed that almost a third of the 1,080 people, surveyed by PricewaterhouseCoopers on October 15 - 16, wanted a full cessation of paramilitary activity as a requirement for the return of devolution.

Interviews for the poll were conducted across all the 18 parliamentary constituencies and 26 district council areas of Northern Ireland.

The poll, which has a margin of error of 2.98% either way, is fully representative of Northern Ireland's adult population in terms of age, gender, religion, geography and social class.

The religious breakdown was 56.9% Protestant and 43.1% Catholic.

It is the fourth such survey commissioned by Hearts and Minds since the referendum on the Agreement.

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If the referendum was held again today, how would you vote?

October 2002
Total: Yes 56% No 44%
Unionist: Yes 32.9% No 67.1%
Nationalist: Yes 82.2% No 17.8%

September 2001
Total: Yes 67.4% No 32.6%
Unionist: Yes 42.3% No 57.7%
Nationalist: Yes 95.9% No 4.1%

May 2000
Total: Yes 67.2% No 32.8%
Unionist: Yes 42.8% No 57.2%
Nationalist: Yes 96% No 4%

March 1999
Total: Yes 68% No 32%
Unionist: Yes 45.6% No 54.4%
Nationalist: Yes 93.6% No 6.4%

The 1998 referendum
Total: Yes 71.2% No 28.8%
Unionist: Yes 55% No 45%
Nationalist: Yes 96% No 4%

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Given the recent suspension of the Northern Ireland Assembly, what is your preferred model for the government of Northern Ireland?

Direct rule from Westminster:
Total 24.5%
Unionist 41.7%
Nationalist 3.8%
Other 24.5%

The return from suspension of the local power-sharing assembly:
Total 30.6%
Unionist 22.6%
Nationalist 38.5%
Other 30.6%

An independent Ulster:
Total 10.5%
Unionist 17.1%
Nationalist 3.1%
Other 10.5%

A united Ireland:
Total 16.9%
Unionist 0.9%
Nationalist 38.3%
Other 16.9%

Joint authority over Northern Ireland by London and Dublin:
Total 6.3%
Unionist 3.2%
Nationalist 9.6%
Other 6.3%

A return to majority rule at Stormont:
Total 11.1%
Unionist 14.5%
Nationalist 6.8%
Other 11.1%

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Under what circumstances would you support the return from suspension of the assembly?

It should be brought back immediately without any preconditions:
Total 21.1%
Unionist 5.6%
Nationalist 43%
Other 13%

A full cessation of all paramilitary activity:
Total 32.4%
Unionist 27.1%
Nationalist 33.8%
Other 52.2%

Another act of IRA decommissioning:
Total 4.2%
Unionist 3.5%
Nationalist 5.6%
Other 1.7%

A statement by the IRA that the war is over:
Total 7.7%
Unionist 7.8%
Nationalist 6.6%
Other 11.3%

Disbandment of the IRA:
Total 14.5%
Unionist 23.6%
Nationalist 4.5%
Other 9.6%

An NI Executive without Sinn Fein:
Total 9.4%
Unionist 16.1%
Nationalist 1.9%
Other 5.2%

I never want to see it return:
Total 10.7%
Unionist 16.3%
Nationalist 4.7%
Other 7%

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Do you think Northern Ireland will still be part of the United Kingdom in 2020?

Yes
Total 53.7%
Unionist 65.5%
Nationalist 37.6%
Other 58.3%

No
Total 46.3%
Unionist 34.5%
Nationalist 62.4%
Other 41.7%

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Which of the following groupings/parties would best represent your views?

Total
Ulster Unionist Party 22.5%
SDLP 17%
Democratic Unionist 20.5%
Sinn Fein 19.6%
Alliance Party 3.1%
Women's Coalition 2.2%
Progressive Unionists 3.5%
UK Unionists 2.7%
NI Unionists 0.7%
Republican Sinn Fein 1.5%
32 County Sovereignty Committee 1.3%
Conservative 0.6%
Other 1%
Refused to answer 3.7%

All Unionist
Ulster Unionists 45.1%
Democratic Unionists 41%
UK Unionists 5.4%
Progressive Unionists 7.1%
NI Unionists 1.5%

All Nationalist
SDLP 43.2%
Sinn Fein 49.8%
Republican Sinn Fein 3.8%
32 County Sovereignty Committee 3.3%

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Who do you support power sharing with?

Ulster Unionist base
SDLP 36.6%
Sinn Fein 0.8%
Both SDLP and Sinn Fein 25.5%
Neither SDLP nor Sinn Fein 37%

Democratic Unionist base
SDLP 18.1%
Sinn Fein 0%
Both SDLP and Sinn Fein 2.7%
Neither SDLP nor Sinn Fein 79.2%

UK Unionist base
SDLP 31%
Sinn Fein 0%
Both SDLP and Sinn Fein 0%
Neither SDLP nor Sinn Fein 69%

Progressive Unionist base
SDLP 26.3%
Sinn Fein 2.6%
Both SDLP and Sinn Fein 7.9%
Neither SDLP nor Sinn Fein 63.2%

Total
SDLP 27.8%
Sinn Fein 0.6%
Both SDLP and Sinn Fein 13.4%
Neither SDLP nor Sinn Fein 58.3%

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In your opinion, which one of the following offers the most effective leadership to unionism in Northern Ireland? (Unionists only)

Ulster Unionist base
David Trimble 76.1%
Ian Paisley 8.6%
Jeffrey Donaldson 12.8%
Peter Robinson 2.5%

Democratic Unionist base
David Trimble 5.9%
Ian Paisley 76.5%
Jeffrey Donaldson 10.4%
Peter Robinson 7.2%

UK Unionist base
David Trimble 20.7%
Ian Paisley 31%
Jeffrey Donaldson 31%
Peter Robinson 17.2%

Progressive Unionist base
David Trimble 39.5%
Ian Paisley 28.9%
Jeffrey Donaldson 15.8%
Peter Robinson 15.8%

Total
David Trimble 41.9%
Ian Paisley 39.1%
Jeffrey Donaldson 12.8%
Peter Robinson 6.1%

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Would you be prepared to see a renegotiation of the Good Friday Agreement? (Nationalist only)

SDLP base
Yes 56.5%
No 43.5%

Sinn Fein base
Yes 50.5%
No 49.5%

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In your opinion, which one of the following offers the most effective leadership to nationalism in Northern Ireland? (Nationalist only)

SDLP base
Gerry Adams 7.6%
Martin McGuinness 7.1%
Mark Durkan 75%
Brid Rodgers 10.3%

Sinn Fein base
Gerry Adams 69.3%
Martin McGuinness 23.6%
Mark Durkan 3.8%
Brid Rodgers 3.3%

Total
Gerry Adams 41.1%
Martin McGuinness 16.2%
Mark Durkan 35.4%
Brid Rodgers 7.3%.

Click on the links below for related stories

Slump in support for Agreement

Assembly suspended

Analysis: Attitudes to devolution

Hearts and Minds poll 2001