Unionist pressure results in border call

David Trimble has called for a border poll next year

BBC NI's Political Editor Mark Devenport analyses David Trimble's motives in calling for a referendum on a united Ireland in May of next year.

The last Northern Ireland border poll was held in March 1973.

With nationalists boycotting the vote, the majority in favour of remaining part of the UK was an overwhelming 98.9%.

The Good Friday Agreement contained provisions enabling future border polls to be held every seven years.

However, the wording of the clause makes it clear that the government was thinking of exercising this option only when it believed that a majority of people in Northern Ireland no longer wished to remain within the UK.

David Trimble: "Put the issue to bed for a generation"

David Trimble's surprise decision to call for a border poll is motivated both by his assessment of the bigger constitutional picture and by the challenges he faces within the unionist fold.

Despite speculation that the 2001 census results, due out later this year, will show a growth in Northern Ireland's Catholic population, Mr Trimble still believes that there remains a clear majority of voters who support the Union.

He is calculating that by opting for a poll sooner rather than later he can, as he puts it, put the question of a united Ireland to bed for a generation.

Although the Ulster Unionist's latest council meeting was less incendiary than many previous gatherings, Mr Trimble remains a man under pressure within his own party and within the wider unionist community.

He obviously hopes that demanding a border poll will change the terms of the debate, portraying him less as a government "yes" man and more as a staunch defender of the union.

Republicans argue that a vote next year would begin what they term the "countdown to a united Ireland

Moreover, holding the poll on the same day as next year's elections to the Stormont Assembly might have a beneficial knock-on effect for Mr Trimble, whose centre-ground supporters have appeared increasingly reluctant to come out to vote.

If there is a big question to be decided they might be galvanised into action and at the same time show their support for pro-Trimble assembly candidates.

So far, both the SDLP and Sinn Fein have welcomed the proposal.

Republicans argue that since the Good Friday Agreement talks about the possibility of holding border polls every seven years, a vote next year would begin what they term the "countdown to a united Ireland".

The DUP says it is not against a referendum in principle, but it sees Mr Trimble's move as a cynical tactic and says any border poll should be held on a separate date from the assembly elections.

So what will the government make of it?

First ministers will have to decide whether putting such a blunt question to the people is politically desirable, then whether they can do it under the terms of the 1998 Act which implemented the Good Friday Agreement.

Government sources say there will be no hasty reaction to Mr Trimble's surprise move, not least because the announcement coincided with the Northern Ireland Secretary John Reid's wedding.

Dr Reid will no doubt want to celebrate his own marital union before contemplating such a contentious vote on Ireland's political union.