Hearts and Minds survey: Part one

The BBC Northern Ireland Hearts and Minds public attitudes survey was conducted by PricewaterhouseCoopers on 10 and 11 September and completed before the terrorist attacks in the US. The pollsters interviewed 1,178 people in the 18 Westminster constituencies the 26 district council areas.

The poll is fully representative of Northern Ireland's adult population in terms of age, gender, religion, geography and social class.

	Click on the links below for the main results
	Future of the Agreement
	Paramilitary ceasefires
	Northern Ireland's constitutional future
	Results in details

Q.1 If the referendum [on the Good Friday Agreement] were held again tomorrow, how would you vote?

UNIONIST OPINION:

NATIONALIST OPINION:

The Unionist vote in favour of the Good Friday Agreement has declined since 1998 but has held for two years at 42%. The nationalist "no" vote has remained largely steady around the 4% mark.

Q.2 If no agreement is reached among the parties by 23 September, what should the Secretary of State do?

ALL GROUPS:

UNIONIST OPINION:

NATIONALIST OPINION:

OTHER GROUPS:

The favourite option among a majority of those surveyed from all groups is for fresh elections. Among the unionists surveyed, an indefinite suspension is the preferred option. Almost half of nationalists surveyed prefer fresh assemblies.

Q.3 Under which of the following circumstances would you support David Trimble going back into government as First Minister?

ALL GROUPS:

UNIONIST OPINION:

NATIONALIST OPINION:

OTHER GROUPS:

This question highlights the polarisation between the two political groupings. Approximately 70% of unionists surveyed said their support of Mr Trimble's return to government should be linked to a move on arms by the IRA, ranging from a commitment to decommission to an actual "verifiable" completion of the process.

In contrast, less than a fifth of nationalists surveyed believed that the IRA should make a commitment on arms before they would support Mr Trimble returning to government - and only 3% believed that it should have completed decommissioning. Almost a quarter of nationalists surveyed do not want Mr Trimble back as First Minister in any circumstances.

Q.4 Do you think that the party that best represents your views should support nominations to the new Policing Board?

UNIONIST OPINION:

NATIONALIST OPINION:

There is a majority among each community in favour of joining the Policing Board - but a significant rump opposed. Detailed analysis shows that almost 80% of UUP voters and 46.2% of DUP voters support joining the board.

Further analysis shows that less than a fifth of SDLP voters oppose their party's position of joining the board - but 65.2% of Sinn Fein voters support their parties continued opposition.

	Click on the links below for the main results
	Future of the Agreement
	Paramilitary ceasefires
	Northern Ireland's constitutional future
	Results in details