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Tuesday, 7 August, 2001, 12:22 GMT 13:22 UK
What next for the political process?

The British and Irish Governments have reacted positively to the IRA's offer to put its arms beyond use - but Ulster Unionist leader David Trimble insists there must be "actual decommisssioning".

BBC Northern Ireland political correspondent Mark Simpson answers the crucial questions on the political deadlock.

What caused the current crisis in the Northern Ireland peace process?

A combination of the IRA's failure to decommission its arms, and David Trimble's decision to resign as first minister of the assembly.

As ever in Northern Ireland, both sides blame each other for the current problems.

But the bottom line is that unless an eleventh-hour agreement can be found, the assembly will go into free-fall.

What are the governments' options if their package to break the political deadlock is rejected?

There are a number of options. They include:

  • Suspend the assembly, and call a review of the Agreement

  • Allow the current assembly to fall, and call a fresh election in the autumn

  • Suspend the assembly for one day, and give the parties six more weeks to reach agreement

    No decision has yet been taken. An assessment will be made once the parties have given their final judgment on the governments' way forward document.

    Is there likely to be a response by the IRA on when its intends to put its weapons beyond use?

    It would be a surprise if an IRA statement did not come soon.

    The International Decommissioning Commission has revealed details of the IRA's latest thinking, but the IRA likes to speak for itself.

    That is why most observers expect some form of statement in the next few days.

    However, there is no guarantee that the IRA will say what unionists want to hear - namely, that they are ready to give up their arms.

    Nonetheless, a statement by the IRA about their intentions is eagerly-awaited by politicians on all sides.

    If the assembly collapses, how much danger would the peace process be in?

    The demise of devolution would be a major blow to the peace process - but not a fatal one.

    The assembly collapsed before, in February 2000, but was restored four months later.

    Even though the political situation is now much worse, it would be far too premature to write off the peace process.

    It has always been a political roller-coaster ride, and it has had its dips before.

    However, the ongoing problems with the Good Friday Agreement have placed a question mark over its survival, and unless the parties can find an agreed way to implement the deal, another set of full-scale negotiations cannot be ruled out.

  • See also:

    30 Mar 00 | Northern Ireland
    NI legal shake-up announced
    Links to more Northern Ireland stories are at the foot of the page.


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