Back to where you once belonged

PROFILE
By George Arney
BBC World Service

The past few years have been turbulent ones for Pakistan, but through it all, Benazir Bhutto has been living in Dubai, in a pink villa fringed by palm trees. Now she wants to return.

After years at the heart of her country's tussle with democracy, Benazir Bhutto left Pakistan in early 1999 for an overseas speaking tour, and she's never gone back.

As soon as she was safely out the way, she was convicted of corruption. Later that year, the army staged its latest coup. And when 9/11 transformed General Musharraf from mildly embarrassing military dictator to an invaluable ally in the war on terror, it looked as though her stay in the political wilderness might be permanent.

A rally in her support

Suddenly, though, Pakistan is abuzz with talk that she is on her way back.

It could almost be a repeat performance of 20 years ago, when, as the heir of a famous politician father hanged by the military, Ms Bhutto flew back from exile to confront an earlier Pakistani dictator to wild popular acclaim.

"General Zia ul Haq, the military dictator, was still alive and well entrenched in power, but when her plane landed in Lahore it was an amazing scene," says journalist Zaffar Abbas. "It was like an ocean of people pouring in from all parts of the Punjab province, from her native province of Sindh, all over. In Lahore the streets were jam-packed with people."

I witnessed for myself Ms Bhutto's huge popular appeal at that time - the vast rallies in defiance of the army, the tear gas-laced clashes between protesters and police. A lot of it was to do with a burning desire to bring back democracy. But there was also something about this young, aristocratic political novice which galvanised the support of the sweaty masses.

"You could see her to some degree as a Princess Diana figure," says Anatole Lieven, a long-time Pakistan watcher now based in Washington. "She does represent something for ordinary Pakistanis, of which the progressive legacy of her father - at least progressive rhetoric - is one, glamour is another, opposition to military rule is a third."

Of course, you can't take the comparison too far. I first saw her, already revelling in her powers of rhetoric, presiding over the Oxford Union debating society. Happy days, as her friend Victoria Schofield recalls.

"She wasn't someone who was buried away in a library. She used to go socialising, she had a lot of friends, and in later years it was those friendships she thought back to, because it was a very happy period for her."

Hero worship

It wasn't to last very long. In 1977, her father, the Pakistan Prime Minister Zulfikar Ali Bhutto, was deposed in a military coup. Two years later, after being tried for murder, he was hanged.

Everywhere I go people ask, 'when are you going back?' Benazir Bhutto Hear Radio 4's Profile

That shock changed her life. Before, she was set to become a diplomat. Now she felt she had to take up his mantle. It seems telling that when the Pakistani scholar Akbar Ahmed recently asked her to name a role model, she chose Fatima, daughter of the Prophet Mohammad.

"Her voice began to waver and I could see the sense of strong identification going through her own mind, about her own father, and that Fatima had to carry on the legacy of her father because the prophet had no sons," he says.

Being her father's daughter gave her a start. But the years she spent in prison after his execution - much of it in solitary confinement - legitimised her. When the military dictator Zia-ul Haq died in a mysterious air crash, the first free and fair elections in years swept her into power.

It was a high point - for her and for Pakistan - never to be regained. Twice-elected prime minister, she was twice dismissed on charges of corruption, which she denies. There were powerful forces arrayed against her, including Islamic fundamentalists who hated having a woman in charge, and the army, who just hated the Bhuttos. But the verdict on her time in office is at best patchy.

With Margaret Thatcher when both were in power

"During her two periods in government, she actually achieved very little, both for the poor of Pakistan but also for progressive causes such as rights of women," says British academic Anatole Lieven.

Lawyer and human rights activist Asma Jehangir, of Lahore, points out that there were also achievements. "The first women were elevated as judges to the superior court. Media was opened up during her tenure for women's rights issues, and it did spread amazing amount of awareness during that period of time. But women expected that she would undo all the legacy of the past, which obviously she was unable to do."

And has her career been tainted by the corruption allegations against her? Yes, says Ms Jehangir. "But everything is relative in Pakistan, because the people who were in the forefront of demonising her for corruption turned out to be more corrupt that her, or at least perceived to be."

Power sharing

Unlike 20 years ago when Ms Bhutto returned to Pakistan to confront a military dictator, if she goes back this time, it will be after doing a deal with one. General Musharraf would probably stay on as president, and corruption cases against her would probably be dropped. Some would see it as selling out. And with officials in London and Washington more enthused about the possibility of her return than many Pakistanis, this could also work to her disadvantage.

As a result of events of recent years, they also detest each other - I think class has something to do with that Anatole Lieven

"People talk about the three As - America, Allah and Army - and they're quite cynical," says Dr Ahmed. "They know that America has to be on board for any politician to succeed, because that means international legitimacy, it means economic aid, and all kinds of support."

It's easy to see why Washington should be keen to prod the president and Ms Bhutto to tie the knot. Islamic radicals are on the war path in Pakistan, al Qaeda is regrouping on its turbulent borders. The general badly needs some political legitimacy - and she is still probably the country's most popular politician.

But any power-sharing deal won't be smooth sailing, says Anatole Lieven. "This is in some ways surprising, because they are both in their different ways very secular, liberal figures. But of course as a result of events of recent years, they also detest each other.

"I think class has something to do with that. He comes from a middle class background, made his way through the military. He has a visceral dislike of these populist aristocrats who he sees frankly as frauds, using their money to buy power in politics."

And Ms Bhutto has been brought up to hate the army, which did after all hang her father. So difficult times ahead. And Washington would probably also be mistaken if it's banking on Bhutto to tackle Islamist militants head-on. She's shown no inclination to do that in the past. Her recipe for dealing with extremism is more subtle.

"People are very poor, and the extremists go to poor families and recruit their children as soldiers in irregular militias, which then set up camps to go and conduct attacks on Nato," she has said. "So I think this is an issue where we have to mix the use of force along with development."

Ask for her solution to any of Pakistan's problems, and the answer almost always comes back to the need for democracy. Given her own failings while in office - and those of other civilian politicians - it's hard to buy that completely. In her heart, maybe even Ms Bhutto harbours some secret doubts.

Whatever drives her on, what's not in doubt is her willingness to make sacrifices. She's already lost a father and two brothers to Pakistan's tempestuous politics and she's well aware that its would-be rulers risk coming to a sticky end.

"The Bhuttos are a very courageous family," says Anatole Lieven. "And you could say the other side of her tremendous personal pride and ambition is that she is a very brave woman."