Gloomy predictions for car makers

Many agency staff have lost their temporary work at Oxford's mini plant.

The car industry has a gloomy year ahead of it, according to an Oxford expert.

Pete Kelly, of JD Power Automotive Forecasting, said volume losses for car makers are inevitable, because the market is falling so quickly.

He said the situation is beginning to look unprecedented, because the decline has been concerted across the world.

But the forecaster said local manufacturers, like Mini and Honda, are in a relatively strong position.

"Mini is a strong brand, highly in demand," said Mr Kelly. "It has been almost unable to meet demand.

"Honda, as one of the stronger Japanese companies, is also in good shape to weather the storm."

I think once the market volume falls again in 2009... that for some manufacturers will mean further redundancies and possibly planned closures Pete Kelly JD Power Automotive Forecasting

BMW's Mini plant in Oxford extended it's usual Christmas break in response to falling sales.

The factory, in Cowley, is due to begin production again on Monday, but will close again between 9 January and 11 January.

Almost 300 agency staff were told last month not to return in the new year.

Mr Kelly said the general picture for British manufacturers in 2009 was gloomy: "Not only is the UK market falling and the US, we are also seeing the west European markets fall.

"The Japanese market is falling and even the previously buoyant emerging car markets, they have also started to show signs of weakness and that will probably will intensify.

"I think once the market volume falls again in 2009, we are likely to see car makers making some losses.

"So what they will have to do is to simply adjust their supply levels, and that for some manufacturers will mean further redundancies and possibly planned closures."