Rocking the vote

By Chris Rogers
BBC South West Political Editor

Until now, the closest the UK has come to having overseas dependencies represented in the European Parliament has been the Isles of Scilly.

Twenty eight miles off the Cornish coast, the islands are part of the South West region and share the same seven MEPs as the other five million inhabitants.

But the Electoral Commission has suddenly stretched the boundaries, with the recommendation that from next year's European Elections, Gibraltar should be attached to the South West.

Its voters, numbering fewer than 20,000, will join mainland voters from Gwennap Head to Gloucester in choosing the MEPs to represent them for the next five years.

Gibraltarians overwhelmingly favour staying British

It is a historic decision, stemming from a ruling in the Human Rights Court in 1999 which said the UK had to offer Gibraltarians the right to vote in European Parliament elections.

The Electoral Commission was given the job of deciding how they would do it.

Gibraltar is too small to have its own constituency. It had to be attached to an existing UK constituency. It soon became clear the only two front runners were the South West and London.

The commission's consultation exercise was clear cut.

Gibraltar's political parties favoured the South West. Six of the seven South West MEPs wanted Gibraltar. London MEPs were split.

Most importantly, ordinary Gibraltarians recognised the South West as having the best historical and social links.

Now the political parties are preparing to win Gibraltar's votes, but it looks likely that just one, the Conservatives, will be the main beneficiary.

Tory hopes

There is a small Labour tradition on the Rock, the existence of a naval dockyard ensures that.

But recent talks between the Blair government and the Spanish over the possibility of shared sovereignty have upset both the Gibraltar government and population.

Gibraltarians are unlike mainland UK voters in turning out in vast numbers to vote, often more than 90%

They even held their own referendum to reinforce their desire for continued independence. A Labour candidate from the UK will have to work very hard for votes.

There is little Liberal Democrat tradition in Gibraltar, and the UK Liberal Democrats argued against attachment to the South West on the basis that Gibraltar deserved a region with a large number of MEPs, to have a better chance of finding one who was sympathetic.

However, Tory leader Iain Duncan Smith visited Gibraltar to offer support in the dispute with Spain. In the past the Rock has been a happy hunting ground for signing up ex-pat Conservative voters who are allowed to vote in Westminster elections.

Although the overall electorate is small, even a few thousand votes might make the difference between the Tories keeping the four MEPs they currently have, or slipping back to three.

No wonder that Neil Parish, a Tory MEP in the South West, will be flying to Gibraltar in the next few days to talk to politicians and residents about political prospects.

The other advantage for the Tories is that Gibraltarians are unlike mainland UK voters in turning out in vast numbers to vote, often more than 90%. Back home turnouts are declining, as low as 25% in European elections.

Convince the Gibraltarians, goes the argument, and you have guaranteed votes in the bag. The Rock's voters will have another incentive to turn out next May.