Labour heartlands still 'smarting'

Labour heartlands still 'smarting'

By Richard Moss BBC Look North political correspondent

If anywhere can be described as Labour's heartlands, it is the North East and Cumbria.

But the region's predominant party is still smarting after losing three of last year's mayoral contests - two to independents with no previous political experience.

That just went to show that even in an area where the Tories are weak, there is still a threat.

No-one knows what the impact of the war will be

Labour probably faces a similar battle this time, against conventional and more unusual political opponents.

There is also no knowing what impact the current events in Iraq will have - either positive or negative - on the party's position.

It is in an intimidating position, though in some parts of the patch, with virtual monopolies in Easington, South Tyneside and Durham City.

Labour's army of activists

But there is a danger it could lose control in Redcar and Cleveland and Wansbeck.

There is also a threat that independents could again cause embarrassment in places like Hartlepool and Stockton.

The impact of new mayor Ray Mallon on the Labour vote in Middlesbrough is another unpredictable factor.

In addition, nobody knows yet whether the war will also deter Labour's army of activists putting in the miles on the campaign trail.

For the Tories, there are some opportunities. They will hope to hold on in Hambleton and Carlisle, but they will also be looking to win control in Scarborough, Harrogate and Tynedale.

But their progress elsewhere may be hampered by a lack of candidates.

The mid-1990s saw the Tories wiped out in many parts of the region and the road back is a tough one.

The Tories hope to have some opportunities in the area

There are no Tory candidates in Easington at all, and the party has only managed to find four for Sedgefield.

Nevertheless, it will be hoping to begin the long haul back to some sort of influence in Newcastle.

It was a council they controlled until 1974, but they have not had a seat in the city for seven years.

But one of their most important battles is in North Tyneside.

They are unlikely to wrest control from Labour there, but just one seat would make the position of the council's Tory mayor, Chris Morgan, more secure.

That would give him a third of the borough's councillors, and remove the opposition's veto on his plans for the patch.

The Lib Dems only control one of the region's councils, Berwick, but they are secure there.

They will though be looking to build on gains made in recent years. They are within four seats of Labour in Wansbeck and have high hopes of taking control.

Threat from the BNP

Like other parts of the country, the traditional parties also face a threat from outside the mainstream.

The British National Party managed to gain significant support in one Sunderland ward last time, and this year they are fielding candidates in all 25 of the city's wards.

Carlisle offers an opportunity to the Conservatives

They are hopeful of gaining their first seat in the region there, but they're also standing in other areas including Newcastle, Gateshead, and Allerdale in Cumbria.

The Socialist Anti-War Alliance will also be hoping to capture protest votes, and there is a smattering of Greens and Old Liberals.

But in addition, the old independent councillor is alive and well and likely to keep control in Eden, and remain the largest grouping in the three other councils where they have a strong presence.