Unravelling the GCSE targets

By Gary Eason
Education editor, BBC News website

Five good GCSEs or equivalents - with maths and English - are now expected

Suppose you come into my café and see I'm offering a fixed price menu which includes a piece of fruit.

No this is not school meals again, it's actually about school league tables - bear with me.

When you reach the fruit counter, a sign says you can have: either an orange, or an apple, or a banana.

Let's say you choose an apple.

When you come to the till, I charge you the fixed price for the meal and extra for the apple.

"But," you protest, "you said the price included a piece of fruit - I had to choose either an orange or an apple or a banana."

"The orange is included," I explain. "The apple and banana are additional things you might have."

New hurdle

So what has this probably-past-its-sell-by analogy got to do with school league tables?

Well, they are changing - they do in most years, of which more later.

But specifically, secondary schools are being set a new hurdle. (Schools in England, that is, because elsewhere in the UK there are now no tables - of which more later too.)

Hitherto the crucial benchmark has been what proportion of their 15-year-olds attain at least five GCSE-level qualifications at grade C or above.

By 15-year-olds they mean those aged 15 at the start of the academic year. They are 16 when they get their results, so confusingly the results are often reported as those of 16-year-olds. They are the same young people, just older and possibly wiser.

Those who get the equivalent of five A*-C grades have helped their school meet ministerial expectations.

But the government has accepted employers' complaints that this is no guarantee these teenagers can read, write and add up properly.

So in future the five good GCSEs benchmark will have to include English and maths GCSEs at grade C or above, as part of what it is calling a GCSE Diploma.

Or will it?

Component

Ruth Kelly told MPs when she announced the changes: "Our new proposals for the GCSE diploma will have English and maths at their heart. We will also change the league tables to ensure that English and maths are a component of their five A to C grades."

Is that "component" the same as saying they must include English and maths GCSEs?

After all, when ministers say "GCSEs" they include a range of other qualifications.

But do those GCSEs include maths and English?

Ms Kelly added, for the benefit of the then Liberal Democrat education spokesman: "The diplomas will have to include English and maths .... I assure him that we shall change the league table to include English and maths. That is a key component of our proposals."

Yes but, actual English and maths GCSEs? Arguably the pledge was not specific.

The Tomlinson report, to which Ms Kelly was in large part responding, had made the somewhat alarming point that having even a good English or maths GCSE was no guarantee you were functionally numerate or literate.

So it would be reasonable for ministers to say the English and maths "component" would be something else - a separate assessment of those basic skills.

League table proposals

Ms Kelly was under pressure of time in the Commons, one cannot expect precise language - what did the more considered white paper proposals actually say?

"At age 16, the most widely recognised measure of success for schools is how many of their students achieve level 2 (five A*-C grades in GCSE and equivalent qualifications).

"We will change this measure to prioritise English and maths at level 2. The new measure in the tables will be the number of students achieving Diploma standard i.e. five A*-C grades (or equivalent) including English and maths."

Again, that does not specify English and maths GCSEs.

Sure enough, when the Department for Education and Skills (DfES) published its annual proposals for the league tables it appeared it was still considering the best way of assessing the basics.

It would be "trialling a range of indicators which might, from 2006, be used to recognise achievements in English and maths .... Final decisions on the indicators to be included in the 2006 Tables will be taken after consultation with schools".

Then it gave two indicators relevant to the "five good GCSEs" benchmark: "% achieving 5+A*-C GCSEs (and equivalent) including English and maths GCSEs", and "% achieving 5+A*-C GCSEs (and equivalent) including functional English and maths at Level 2" - in which "Level 2 Key Skills and Basic Skills would be counted as well as C+ GCSE."

Commitment

Words such as "trialling", "range", "might" and "final decisions ... after consultation" suggested to me these were possible alternatives.

But no, I was assured by the DfES at the time that the second indicator was not an option, but additional information.

"The commitment is to show five A*-C GCSEs including English and maths at GCSE in performance tables from 2006 and this will be piloted in this year's tables," said a spokesman.

Perfectly clear, then - although, as an aside, if they have decided to use this, why pilot it?

Anyway I wrote an article saying the department had clarified its intentions about the tables.

But I would not expect head teachers to take my word for it. I would expect them to follow official written guidance.

Either/or

This week I was reading the sort of bundle of documents that heads and school governors with nothing better to do are sent.

Appendix 3 dealt with setting targets for pupils' future attainment - a legal requirement for schools in the autumn term.

Imagine my surprise when I read: "Given the forthcoming changes to the Tables, the DfES stresses the importance of schools beginning to plan now for English and mathematics being integral to their target arrangements, and asks schools to set and report an additional 5+A*-C or equivalent target which includes English and mathematics (either GCSE or other Level 2 Key Skills and Basic Skills qualifications regarded as functional equivalents).

The words "either" and "or" implied to me that these were alternatives.

Back to the DfES. I was reassured: they referred to the "additional information". The commitment to the target was clear: actual English and maths GCSEs.

But, were head teachers not being misled by being told they would need to show attainment in "either" GCSEs "or" the other qualifications?

Apparently not. Well, I only hope they do read our stuff and not the official guidance.

Tables revised

You might think all this is dancing on the head of a pin, but it became something of an issue this week.

Given the importance the Department for Education and Skills now attaches to English and maths GCSEs, you might think it would publish the results.

But no. It just collects them. So a colleague at BBC Radio 4 used the Freedom of Information Act to get them for every school.

We republished our school tables to include them, and they show the hill many schools have to climb as the government moves the benchmark goalposts.

Believe it or not, it was a coincidence these appeared on the day the DfES published this year's statistics on pupil performance.

In its press release the department said key figures published in the Statistical First Release: GCSE and Equivalent Results for Young People in England, 2004/05 (Provisional) showed more pupils were mastering the basics.

"The percentage of 15-year-old pupils getting 5+ A* - C including English and mathematics has risen from 35.6% in 1997 to 44.1% in 2005," it said.

Good news. The funny thing is, the statistical release does not show that.

I am not saying it is not true, but try as I might, I cannot find in those statistics the "5+ A* - C including English and maths" for this year, let alone from 1997. (Let me know if you do.)

Which is a bit odd, given that it is now such an important benchmark, destined for the tables - perhaps with some other, additional information about English and maths achievements.

I was going to say more about the tables but it will have to wait for another time.

Among other things, we can explore why that statistical release has two sets of everything, and how some schools in Scotland get attainment rates of more than 100% - yes, more than everyone qualifies.

Now if you still want that apple it's 40p. Hurry up, you're causing a queue.

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