Prof Eastwood says universities may leave the Ucas system
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Many English universities are now likely to introduce their own entrance tests, a vice-chancellor has said.
Some of the leading institutions might leave the collective admissions system altogether, said David Eastwood, head of the University of East Anglia.
Prof Eastwood was higher education's representative on the Tomlinson inquiry into 14 to 19 education.
He was making his first public comments after the government rejected a diploma to absorb existing qualifications.
'Enthusiastic'
Tomlinson had assembled a "rare consensus to embrace reform", Prof Eastwood told a Westminster Briefing conference in London.
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We might be moving into a period where university admissions tests will proliferate
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Not adopting its idea of a common framework for academic as well as vocational qualifications was "an opportunity missed", he said.
In its response, the government has proposed a diploma for vocational subjects, but the retention of GCSEs and A-levels.
There are to be tougher questions for the brightest at the advanced level and candidates' grades for the component parts of A-levels would be made available to universities.
Prof Eastwood said higher education had been enthusiastic about Sir Mike Tomlinson's report because the former chief inspector of England's schools had listened to the concerns of all, from selective universities to those doing most to widen participation.
"So I do fear that we might be moving into a period where university admissions tests will proliferate," he told the assembled educationists.
'Balkanised'
Already a number were using law and medicine aptitude tests, and Oxford had introduced an entry test for those wanting to study history.
"Some of that was on hold, some of the pressure was being held back in expectation of what Tomlinson would deliver," he said.
"I think many universities will now move towards setting entrance tests."
American SAT-style aptitude tests might diminish A-levels as "the passport to entry into the 'best' universities".
It was "not unimaginable" that some leading universities might leave the admissions service, Ucas.
Some might do this by forming consortia - perhaps formally staying within Ucas but still using admissions tests.
From the point of view of young people it would mean "a much more Balkanised landscape".
Wider participation
Another effect of the government's "rowing back" might be slower progress towards encouraging a wider range of people into higher education.
"I would dearly love to be proved wrong but that's my fear."
Education Minister Ivan Lewis told the conference that universities were "very articulate" in demanding changes to the education system, in terms of better differentiation between the brightest A-level students.
But he said some of them needed to change their "traditional attitude" towards young people who had vocational qualifications.
"Lumping everything together", he said, was not the way to get higher status for vocational qualifications.
The key was the involvement of employers and of universities.
Reservations
Prof Eastwood also said there were "reservations" among universities about the government's idea that one way of stretching more able A-level students would be to let them study higher education modules.
And there were "considerable reservations" about the idea that students would apply to university after getting their A-level results instead of, as now, on the basis of their predicted grades.
But his understanding was that "a deal is about to be brokered" on such a post-qualification application (PQA) system.
Although disappointed by the government's response to the Tomlinson report, the vice-chancellor shares the view that the Department for Education and Skills and 10 Downing Street intend to "revisit the Tomlinson agenda".