GCSE pass rate 'likely to fall'

GCSE pass rates look set to fall

Pupils should be prepared for a fall in the GCSE pass rate when results come out on Thursday, experts predict.

If the trend of recent years continued, the overall pass rate would fall, while passes at grades A* to C would improve, said Professor Alan Smithers from Buckingham University.

Last year the pass rate fell 0.3% to 97.6%, while the proportion of A* to C grades rose by 0.2% to 58.1%.

Professor Smithers also suggests girls' results have "plateaued".

Girls had been outperforming boys during the course of the 1990s, though in 2003 that gap began to narrow, with boys' performance improving and girls' remaining the same.

If you can only score F or G, all you are doing is labelling yourself as not being very good Professor Alan Smithers

Professor Smithers, of Buckingham University's Centre for Education and Employment Research, said the pressure politicians put on schools to enter all their pupils for GCSEs, even if they were not capable enough, was to blame for the fall in pass rates.

GCSEs, even vocational GCSEs which are aimed at less academic pupils, were not suitable for all young people, said Professor Smithers.

"Getting everyone to take part is something that politicians value. They tend to lose sight of how important qualifications are to people and what part that they play in their lives," he said.

"If you can score well in GCSEs, of course it can open doors to A-levels and your future.

"If you can only score F or G, all you are doing is labelling yourself as not being very good. It is not particularly humane to insist that young people label themselves in that way, and some are opting out."

The Department for Education and Skills refused to comment on the GCSE results until they are published on Thursday.