Are the times a-changing?

By Mike Baker
BBC education correspondent

The year 2004 will be a crucial one for education.

Several of last year's policy pigeons are still fluttering free but are likely to come home to roost before the end of the year.

In January 2003, the education world was wondering how school funding problems would be resolved, how university tuition fees would work and what the future held for GCSEs and A-levels in the review of the 14-19 curriculum.

Twelve months on and we are all still pondering the answers to those questions. But decision day is much nearer.

Calm

It seems 2003 was something of a standstill year.

After the rollercoaster that was 2002 - with the A-level marking crisis, Criminal Records Bureau fiasco and the resignation of Estelle Morris as education secretary - perhaps it was inevitable that 2003 would be a little calmer.

My prediction, for what it is worth, is that the bill will survive. Just.

But not that calm. The year has felt a little like living on the edge of a precipice. No one quite fell over but there has been a lot of teetering on the brink.

Head teachers waited anxiously to see if the budget problems at the start of 2003 would be resolved by the end of the year.

University vice-chancellors nervously viewed the political shenanigans over the forthcoming Higher Education Bill.

Prospective students and their parents waited to see how much a university education would cost in future.

And teachers, parents and pupils remained in the dark over the proposed reforms of tests, exams and the curriculum.

If 2003 was the year of treading water, 2004 will be the year when key education policies sink or swim.

Hotting up

The biggest test will be on university reform. January 2003 began with eager speculation over the plans to charge students higher fees and ended with publication of the white paper itself.

The debate has been heating up ever since, with some universities fuelling the fire by talking of fees well above the planned maximum of £3,000 a year.

By May the Conservatives had raised the stakes by saying they would scrap university tuition fees altogether, although it will be interesting to see whether the new party leader will stick with a policy which could mean far fewer younger people going to university.

In December, the number of rebellious Labour MPs was growing fast. But signing a Commons motion is one thing. Voting against the government on the second reading of a bill may prove to be another.

Threatened Labour rebellions have often been like predictions of snow in southern Britain: a lot of nervous anticipation but proving to be thin on the ground on the day.

Ministers have been mounting an unprecedented "charm offensive" over the past month or so. The reform package is complicated and many are still trying to understand it.

Will Charles Clarke address the NUT's annual conference?

My prediction, for what it is worth, is that the bill will survive. Just.

We should know soon: the Higher Education Bill will be published in the next fortnight alongside further details of how the government plans to do more to offer financial support to students from poor homes.

The other big story of last year centred on school funding. By Easter the alarm bells were ringing at the teacher conferences and by the summer term budget cuts were beginning to bite.

A school in Croydon which sent pupils home early to save money triggered a media blitz. The opposition parties spotted a weak spot in the government's armour and went for it.

The government did not handle the matter well. First it denied there was a problem, then it blamed the head teachers and, finally, it tried to shuffle off responsibility to local councils.

It did not wash. In the end, government officials admitted they had not been able to model the changes to the funding system and the education secretary apologised to schools.

Chains of schools?

At the end of the year, an earlier funding settlement and a two-year teachers' pay "freeze" appeared to have improved the prospects for the coming year's school budgets.

In October, ministers promised a 4% guaranteed funding increase for every school. But there will still be plenty of nerves as schools await their final, detailed figures in the spring.

There are some wider questions too - will 2004 see a radical move by government to do away with local education authorities? Will we see "chains of schools" managing themselves or run directly from Whitehall?

Two other big educational issues, both raised in 2003, are due to reach a conclusion in 2004.

The inquiry into university admissions, headed by Stephen Schwartz, has already raised the possibility of some new form of university entrance tests.

The next stage of the inquiry, due early in the year, could upset traditionalists. The independent schools, which last year imposed a short-term boycott on Bristol University over its admissions policies, will be watching the outcome particularly closely.

Frenzy

The other big independent inquiry - Mike Tomlinson's review of the 14-19 curriculum and examinations - is due to report by the autumn.

The task force's preliminary report produced a frenzy over the future of A-levels.

However, it seems likely that the proposed new "diploma" will leave A-levels intact as a constituent part of a wider qualification. However, the role for coursework will probably be reduced.

The biggest problem will be whether Tomlinson can succeed where all others have failed so far, by making vocational studies as attractive to students, parents and employers as the traditional academic route.

The last month of 2003 brought relief for the government when the wider NUT membership failed to match the annual conference's enthusiasm for a boycott of school tests in England.

Farewell: The "indefatigable" Doug McAvoy is retiring as NUT general secretary

However, teachers still don't like the tests and the coming year's experiment with a new form of testing at age seven will be watched closely. All eyes will be on Wales, too, to see if it decides to abandon the tests at age 11.

Finally, although the general election is unlikely in 2004, there is another election with important ramifications for education.

In June, the NUT is due to elect a new general secretary to replace Doug McAvoy. While it is hard to imagine education without the indefatigable Doug, the new person will determine the direction for a union which, despite its internal problems, still sets the tone for teachers' morale and image.

Last year, the education secretary successful carried out his own boycott (he didn't need a membership vote to deliver it) when he refused to attend the NUT's annual Easter conference. Will he go this year?

2003 saw Charles Clarke establishing himself in the role suddenly left vacant by Estelle Morris. He has brought some stability to education politics. But the hard decisions still lie ahead.

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