Britons flutter on the US race

By Lucy Rodgers
BBC News

The drama of the race for the White House has attracted gamblers

The US presidential election has captured the interest of many Britons, so much so that they have bet millions of pounds on its outcome. So why have events across the Atlantic captured the UK's imagination so much that so many people have been willing to part with their hard-earned cash?

As the time of reckoning draws near, so the number of bets placed by UK residents on the outcome of the US presidential election are expected to increase.

Betfair, an online betting exchange which gives punters the opportunity to make bets with each other, is expecting a final flurry in the hours before polls close to elect either Republican John McCain or Democrat Barack Obama to the White House.

It has so far seen £23.5m placed on the outcome of the election on the other side of the Atlantic. Although it is not yet clear how much of that was spent by the British, it dwarfs the £10m placed on the UK general election in 2005.

It [the election] lasts a long time and I think this particular contest is riveting. People have been taken by it Mike Smithson Politicalbetting.com

Ladbrokes estimates it will have taken £1m - double its 2005 general election figures - from British punters by then end of Tuesday.

Meanwhile, William Hill estimates Britons will have gambled £10m in total with traditional British bookies. Among some of William Hill's biggest bets is a massive £25,000 staked on Obama at odds of 4/6 and £17,500 at 13/8 on McCain.

After taking all types of betting into account, Mike Smithson, editor of politicalbetting.com, believes £25-£30m will be gambled in total by the British on the US election.

This year's race has been "enormously" popular, he says, and puts the fact that there have been more bets on the US race than on the 2005 general election down to the drama and the significance the result has for the rest of the world.

"People can become totally absorbed by it - there has been a lot of media coverage, but it is arguably more important than the British general election," he says. "It comes after the Iraq war - and I think people are interested."

Rewards for opinions

Fascination began with the primaries, he says, and "just got bigger and bigger".

"It [the election] lasts a long time and I think this particular contest is riveting. People have been taken by it."

His website, set up in 2004, recorded a record 2.2 million hits in October, mostly down to interest in events in the US.

But he says there is a growing interest in political betting generally which he believes is because of the enjoyment people gain from having their opinions reap financial rewards.

Not just US voters are interested in the outcome of the election

"There is something rather satisfying about getting that right, and it is getting more and more popular."

In the run up to the US elections, people have been betting on a whole host of things: Who will win; the number of vote returns; individual state outcomes; how many states McCain will win; when McCain will make his concession speech - even what the weather will be like over the White House on election day.

But some of the biggest rewards could be seen in predicting, through spread betting, how many electoral college votes each of the hopefuls will get, Mr Smithson says.

He has already placed his own bet on Obama getting 320 electoral college votes. For every one Obama gets above this estimate Mr Smithson will win an extra £40. Equally, for every one under, he will lose £40.

But there is one other bet he is hoping may reap rewards. On 26 May 2005, he gambled on Obama winning the US presidency at odds of 50/1.

US policy 'matters'

So why are so many Britons fascinated by what is happening across the Atlantic?

Nick Kitchen, a fellow of the transatlantic project at the Centre for Diplomacy and Strategy at the London School of Economics, believes the interest is so great because "everyone globally has a stake in it", despite not having a vote.

"As the world becomes more globalised, US policy matters," he says, explaining that the credit crunch demonstrated just how intertwined economies now are. "Your ability to get credit depends on the policy of the US," he says.

In addition, the US's involvement in countries such as Iraq, Iran, Korea, the Palestinian territories and Northern Ireland has been important in the past and remains so, he says.

There is a major sense that this one is important. A lot of people in Europe think it will be world changing Nick Kitchen London School of Economics

"People's interest reflects that."

But in terms of the scale of interest this time around, Mr Kitchen puts it partly down to the way people now feel more directly involved with the election process wherever they are through social networking sites and other instantaneous means of communication.

Fascination has also grown because it has been an election about two striking figures who illicit intense reactions from people the world over, he argues.

On the one side there is Obama, an "astonishing figure" with "soaring rhetoric" who has been described by the European press in messianic terms, and on the other there has been, not McCain, but outgoing President George W Bush, who has been regarded as "an incredibly divisive figure" by many, Mr Kitchen says.

"There is a major sense that this one is important. A lot of people in Europe think it will be world changing," he says, adding that, in his opinion, it will not.

Even an Obama victory would not bring a "sea change", he argues, but would, instead, continue the long-standing traditions of US diplomacy.

Yet, whatever the outcome, the result of Tuesday's election appears to have fired the imaginations of British political gamblers and non-gamblers alike on a scale never seen before.