Security chiefs' 'nightmare scenario'

Analysis
By MJ Gohel
Terrorism expert

Three terrorist attacks have been launched in the UK, two in central London and another at Glasgow Airport.

What is the significance of a British terror target outside London?

The attack in Glasgow followed two car bombs in London

It is interesting and it is also worrying that this attack has taken place in Glasgow because up until yesterday (Saturday) all the successful attacks were only in London.

Now suddenly we have Glasgow. It seems clear that in these particular attacks, both in London and the one in Glasgow, there is a Scottish connection.

Of course, Gordon Brown, the new prime minister is also of Scottish origin. There was intelligence that when Tony Blair retired and Gordon Brown took over the country may possibly face some kind of terrorist attack.

This has now happened in a co-ordinated way and obviously there is some kind of linkage between what happened in London and in Glasgow.

I think at the moment it is speculation, but it is very unusual. There has never been any evidence that outside London any kind of attack was planned.

Now once this has started, it's Glasgow yesterday, it could be Birmingham, Manchester, Swansea, wherever.

What is worrying is that for the security services this is a nightmare scenario.

Initially, the threat was apparently from abroad, from al-Qaeda operating from Pakistan or wherever.

Then we realised there were individuals born and brought up in the UK who are being recruited but again the target was London. Now the target is outside London.

What is also worrying is that the head of MI5 said quite recently that there are something like 2,000 identifiable individuals actively engaged in plotting terrorist attacks, that there are some 200 known networks involved in at least 30 terrorist plots.

That is quite a large threat.

MJ Gohel is director of international policy think tank the Asia-Pacific Foundation and on the board of the Centre for Terrorism and Political Violence at St Andrews University