Burglary prediction tool devised

The Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science was set up three years ago

Criminologists believe they have found a more accurate way of predicting where burglaries are likely to happen.

The system - called prospective crime mapping - has been set up by the Jill Dando Crime Institute.

Their research shows properties within 400m of a home which have already been burgled, are at higher risk for up to two months after the initial incident.

Using data from Merseyside, researchers found prospective hotspot maps were 30% more accurate than current systems.

Researchers are advising the police to increase patrols in areas of a potential burglary cluster.

Researcher Shane Johnson said: "Burglaries often occur in clusters because house layouts, exit routes and the kind of pickings can be similar."

Using this approach we can predict the new patch a perpetrator is moving into and identify the households that are most at risk Shane Johnson Jill Dando Crime Institute

Dr Johnson said crime maps are currently based on area crime rates and the new maps are more dynamic.

"This means calculations of where hotspots occur are constantly adjusted, or evolve, to reflect any new incidents that occur," he said.

"Using this approach we can predict the new patch a perpetrator is moving into and identify the households that are most at risk."

Researchers are also advising police to warn homeowners so that they can be on their guard.

Dr Johnson added: "We have to stay one step ahead of the criminal fraternity and while we're not at the stage of science fiction films like Minority Report, anything that can help make us that bit safer must be investigated thoroughly."

The Jill Dando Institute of Crime Science was set up three years ago to focus on how to prevent crime.

The institute was created with £1m donated to the Jill Dando Fund.

The BBC presenter was shot dead five years ago at her home in Fulham, south-west London, by unemployed Barry George, 41, who was jailed for life in July 2001.