April 2002: The legacy of foot-and-mouth

At last, some good news for farmers caught up in the foot-and-mouth maelstrom. We are probably past the worst. But the road to recovery will not be an easy one.

For many farmers whose livestock die in the foot-and-mouth culls, the slaughter is not the end, but merely the start of a long and difficult recovery.

So, 12 months down the line, how will those farmers whose animals were killed during the epidemic, be coping with the effects of foot-and-mouth disease?

Compensation for breeding ewes is £81 per head

For some, the question will almost be an irrelevance. It's expected that many of those hit by the infection will claim the statutory compensation for their dead livestock before finally throwing in the towel.

Foot-and-mouth is only the latest in a litany of disasters for Britain's farming community, including BSE and swine fever. Many farmers cannot face the struggle of resurrecting their business.

The Labour Government has long seen the farming industry as ripe for reform and foot-and-mouth may be used as a lever to implement new policies.

Retirement package

Recently, Agriculture Secretary Nick Brown has hinted to Parliament that a government-backed early retirement scheme could be in the offing.

For those that carry on, the most pressing questions will be:

• how soon can they buy new livestock?
• will livestock prices escalate rapidly?
• how quickly can they get to full productivity?

Infected farms must go through a series of disinfection processes designed to wipe out all traces of the virus. The time this takes will depend on the farm's proximity to other infected holdings. Analysts expect the average disinfection period to be six months.

Compensation package

Breeding ewes: £81 each

New season's lamb: £42

Sows: £75

Pigs: £15 minimum

Breeding cows: £900

This period will be extremely hard for farmers, after all it is essentially "dead time" when the farm is generating no income but still generating maintenance bills.

So far, the Government has been tight-lipped about helping to cover these so-called "consequential losses", although campaigners are calling for financial help to tide farmers over.

The disinfection delay means most farmers who have recently experienced a cull cannot realistically expect to restock their farms before mid-October.

How quickly a farmer can get his operation back to full productivity depends on a range of variables, most importantly the type of stock he keeps.

Nick Brown has hinted at an early retirement package for farmers

According to a recent report complied by the National Farmers' Union, the "biological processes involved mean it will be many months, if not years, before businesses can return to normal productive capacity".

There is widespread uncertainty about restocking prices, with fears that a sudden burst of demand will push up prices on the open market.

But agricultural economist Paul Webster, from Imperial Wye College, does not foresee a huge jump in prices since only a small fraction of Britain's livestock has so far been killed in the foot-and-mouth culls.

October is too late

Farmers looking for new beef cattle will ideally want weaned calves or heifers already in calf. But if they bought them in mid-October there is no chance they would be ready for slaughter by April next year.

Feed and bedding are heavy costs to bear

It takes 10-12 months to intensively rear beef cattle; 18-24 months to raise them for a higher quality beef. As with all livestock, the farmer will have to invest heavily on feed and bedding as he rears the animals to full productivity.

For milking farms, the 12-month prognosis is slightly better. Young cows could be milking within a month of coming from market, although output would only return to 50% of pre-foot-and-mouth levels.

Because it takes time to get young cows going, it could be another 18 months before a farmer sees his stock milking at full capacity.

Bridge the gap

However, it's expected that farmers will try to cut this productivity gap by buying in older and more expensive cows that are already lactating, and introducing younger animals later.

Pigs units could recover relatively quickly

On sheep farms, much depends on whether replacement stock can be bought in time for autumn "tupping" - impregnating of the ewe. If it can, the farmer is in good stead for April 2002 since the ewe will have borne lambs.

But if disinfection periods stretch into October, lambing is likely to be delayed by another 12 months.

Prospects are brighter for pig units. Because the breeding cycle in pigs is quicker than sheep or cattle, a weaner bought six months from now could produce several new sows by next April.