When to book your summer break

One year there's a glut of holidays and they end up going cheap, the next there's not enough. So when should you book your summer getaway?

The weeks following Christmas are the busiest of the year for High Street travel agents as a surge of sun-seekers plan their summer getaways.

But how can you be sure of getting a good deal? Booking a holiday to Palm Beach, Florida, can seem about as straightforward as voting in a presidential election there.

Sale time, and travel agents are trying to get in on the act

A recent survey for the independent travel agent Travelcare found 55% of those booking a discounted package holiday feared it would later go on sale at a lower price.

It certainly happens, although increasingly they may find the same holiday actually goes up in price.

The pricing of package holidays is a murky area and one that leads to great confusion among the paying public.

This year travel agents are going all out for early bookings, offering "discounts" of 50% compared to about 40% last year.

Artificial inflation

But there have been cries of foul play. Bruce Treloar, of the Trading Standards Institute, suspects some companies of artificially inflating early prices so they can later be "discounted" with great fanfare.

Companies deny such underhand tactics, but then how much can we trust what they say?

Confusion reigns

In 1998 Dermot Blastland, managing director of First Choice, seemed to let the cat out of the bag when he predicted: "The trade will indulge in its best year of 'price confusion' - where the retailer and the operator provide a 'deal' and the customer, in his eyes, receives a 'bargain'."

The question we all want answered is when is the best time to book?

Some years there is an abundance of last minute cheap deals caused by tour operators over-estimating demand.

Last year, it was the opposite scenario. Tour operators, having drastically miscalculated demand for millennium holidays, cut back on the summer holidays. The result was fewer late deals.

Tricks of the trade

"There is unlikely to be a significant increase in consumer demand," says Phil Davies, editor of Travel Trade Gazette. It makes the prospect of late deals more likely, although he cautions it is still too early to know how the "late market" will pan out.

However, before you shell out £1,000-plus on the annual family escape there are some so-called "tricks of the trade" we all should be wise to.

Brochure prices

How long can you hold off booking?

The price you see in the brochure is often not what you actually pay. This could be because your two-month-old brochure is already out of date.

All the main tour operators print several issues per year of their summer brochures. By Christmas they are already on the third edition.

But even being bang up to date is no guarantee. The headline price in a brochure will not take account of supplements for flying from a different airport, at a different time, for reserving a seat on the flight and reserving a room with a view.

Window prices

Sometimes tour operators over-estimate demand

Last year, a survey by Which? magazine found 39 out of 94 holidays advertised in travel agents' windows were not available. That's 40%. More worrying is the fact only a third were available at the price advertised.

Mr Treloar says the cards are a "hook" to reel in customers.

"Once they're in [the shop] they are going to feel slightly trapped. Can they be bothered to get up, go out and start again?" he says.

Fluid pricing

Introduced three years ago by Thomson, the rule is that the price of your holiday could go up as well as down.

Fluid pricing enables travel agents to match price with demand. If 14 nights at a three-star in Torremolinos is selling slowly, cut the price. If customers are queuing up to book seven nights self-catering in Naxos, charge them more.

Operator-agent ties

Linked operators and travel agents

Thomson - Lunn Poly

Airtours - Going Places

Thomas Cook - Thomas Cook, JMC

First Choice - Travel Choice

The mass travel market is dominated by a handful of names. All the big operators, which put together holiday deals, are owned or have links with travel agents, which sell to the public.

Mr Treloar says while agents sell a range of holidays, they will generally push in-house deals harder.

Agents' discounts

Fluid pricing often goes hand-in-hand with early discounting. By reducing prices early, companies hope punters will not hang around until the price of a holiday falls. But as already pointed out, discounts may not always be what they seem.

'Special offers'

Agents often use hard-sell language which stops short of proclaiming a discount, but which customers may still find misleading. Legally, terms such as "special offer", "mega deals" and "late deals" mean nothing.

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As with any major purchase, Phil Davies insists the key to a good deal is to shop around. He also suggests trying independent travel agents - the UK's biggest independent agent Travelcare is guaranteeing its prices for two months.

"There is no reason to be pressured into buying now, unless you have set your heart on a certain resort and hotel at a particular time," says Mr Davies.

"Every year there are 17 or 18 million holidays available. They aren't all going to be snapped up in a couple of months."