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Saturday, October 16, 1999 Published at 13:36 GMT 14:36 UK
Our man in Islamabad answers ![]() The BBC's correspondent in Islamabad, Owen Bennett-Jones, answers your questions.
Papupager, India: As of today is there martial law in the country? Do you think democracy will be reinstated or not? Owen Bennett-Jones:
News Online: Do you think democracy will be reinstated? We'll just have to wait and see. It all depends on what the general has to say. I put this point to a senior military officer the other day, that isn't it the case in history, in other countries as well as Pakistan, that once a military man takes over power he finds it very difficult to give it up. And he said, "that is true but we are going to change history". We'll have to see if that is the case. He hasn't yet given a date for when he plans to hold elections, it may be more than three months. I think that's true because the army people I've been speaking to say they want an administration to last longer than that. He may try and avoid giving a date at all. So it's all a bit up in the air at the moment and if he does give up power it would be most unusual, given the precedence of military rulers around the world. Angela George, USA: How is the general atmosphere in Pakistan? Is there a danger of civilian riots? Owen Bennett-Jones: Well, it is very relaxed. While the rest of the world has been shocked by these events in Pakistan, I have to say that people here in this country have taken events very much in their stride. People have focused on the departure of Narwaz Sharif's regime and we now know just how unpopular that regime was. It's a remarkable fact that just two years ago, Narwaz Sharif was elected to power with a very big majority and yet two years later when his government has been overthrown by a military coup, there has only been, to my knowledge, one demonstration in Karachi which has been very small, just 50 people or so, going out onto the streets and supporting him. Now, to some extent the politicians who have also failed to back Narwaz Sharif are working out how they can position themselves for the new military regime and how they can avoid getting themselves into trouble. There is a broad opinion here that the time for change had come and now the military regime is in place there will be a change. Having said that, there are some people who, while supporting the ousting of Narwaz Sharif's regime, also believe that there should be elections quite soon. And it may be that if General Musharraf goes way beyond the three month period, voices will be having themselves heard saying that the time has come to get back to democracy before too long. Gul Khan, USA: What do people know about Gen. Musharraf? Is he well known, and respected in the country? Owen Bennett-Jones: He's an interesting man, a very relaxed individual, he doesn't get too worried. I was on the Siachen glacier with him at 20,000 feet where the Pakistani and Indian armies face each other off, and the general was smoking a cigarette as I was about to do a television interview with him. And he said to me, "I've just taken over as army chief and I haven't done many of these television interviews before, do you think it is a good idea if I smoke?" And I said, "Well on the whole sir, probably not, if you are going to appear on television you might be advised not to smoke, but of course it's up to you." He said, "You are probably right, I shouldn't should I? Oh well never mind, I want to - so I'm going to" and carried on smoking on air! So he takes his own decisions and is quite a relaxed individual. Vishwajit, India: How different is this military regime from the one that was headed by Gen. Zia Ul Haq? Gen. Zia Ul Haq also initially promised early free elections, but never held free elections. Owen Bennett-Jones: Well, we haven't even had the promise of early free elections yet so in that respect we haven't got as far as General Zia. We just don't know what will happen over the next three months, six months, one year, two years or for however long he is in power. The precedent is there with what General Zia did, is he going to go the same way? You speak to army officers here and they say "no, this is different", "we are going to sort out some major policy issues for the country and we'll leave". Maybe. Maybe it will get more oppressive, maybe it will go the same way as General Zia. We just don't know. These are the big questions. Muhammad Khalid, Pakistan: What is the role of Rafiq Tarar, President of Pakistan in all this? Either he was aware of this military action in advance or he is just a dummy in his seat. Owen Bennett-Jones: I don't think he was aware actually. As I understand it the army went to him after the coup and asked for his support. He has apparently offered his support to them - he is still in office. But he complained that he hadn't been told the coup had happened, but they hardly would have told him because, until last week he was a great Nawaz Sharif loyalist. He was appointed by Nawaz Sharif, he's a long term family friend of the Sharifs and he would of course not have welcomed news of the coup. But now the coup has happened he has apparently decided to go along with it. His office has been completely reduced, it says in the declaration of military rule that the president shall be subordinate to the general. But Rafiq Tarar has apparently thought it wise to go along with this and to abandon the Sharifs and to take part in this new regime. Dr. Nafis, England: There is emergency rule but the people of Pakistan seem to like this change. How can West put pressure on these Generals when they are enjoying people's support? Owen Bennett-Jones: I think you might find that the support here changes if the military stay in power for a long time. If they become more oppressive, you may find that disillusionment will set in, but that is all in the future. We don't know if it's going to work out like that. I think it's also worth making the point that the military officers that I have spoken to are quite pleased with the international reaction. They think it has been pretty restrained. If you look at the United States, they have blocked a small aid project. That's it. It's a symbolic effort. They haven't yet blocked IMF funds and they might not. That's what matters. This is when you get into the multi-billion dollar sums and if Pakistan lost that money it would be in serious trouble. But it hasn't yet lost it, it is still under consideration at the IMF headquarters and we will have to see what consensus builds up over the next few weeks but if the international reaction remains as it is I think you might find that the generals are not too bothered. Noveed Ahmed, England: Do you think that there are any divisions within the Army which are still loyal to Nawaz Sharif and want him to be returned as PM of Pakistan? Owen Bennett-Jones: If so there are very few signs of them, I must say. You have to remember that this coup was mounted when General Musharraf was not actually in Pakistan, the coup began when he was airborne. The prime minister sacked him deliberately when he was airborne because he thought it would make it more difficult for Musharraf to resist his dismissal. Obviously the army had come to some agreement that in the event of Musharraf being dismissed they would move, and they did. When Musharraf got back on land, which was only an hour or two after the coup had begun, he was able to take command of the coup and assume eventually this power of chief executive and the army fell in with that. So there were senior army officers running a coup with their chief absent and on his behalf, that does indicate a degree of unity. There must be people in the army who are still sympathetic to Nawaz Sharif, you would have thought. We haven't heard from them and there hasn't been much sign of them, but I am sure they would have been supporters of him just a week ago, maybe it's all changed. Anyway there is no indication of much support for Nawaz Sharif in the army now. Tahmoor, Pakistan: How will Nawaz be treated and what will his future be? Owen Bennett-Jones: He is currently under house arrest. The army call it preventative custody. I have asked if he is going to be charged or not and there is no firm answer on that yet although there is this interesting phrase, that legal processes are under way. One imagines that that would lead to some kind of charge. What the charge would be we don't know. These military rulers are talking about an anti-corruption drive. It may be that they want to include Narwaz Shaif in some kind of accountability process and that the charges will relate to those kinds of issues. All we know at the moment is that he is not able to communicate with anyone. He's under house arrest and the army are obviously deciding what they are going to do with him. Shahid Talpur, Australia: What seems to be the choice for Pakistani people if the Army opts for an election after some time. All the political parties in Pakistan have already been tried and there seems to be no reasonable option for the people of Pakistan other than a long term military rule? Owen Bennett-Jones: These governments were democratically elected. It is a widely held view in Pakistan that the country has been badly led for fifty years, and don't forget that includes military governments for about half the time. But yes, many, many people in Pakistan say "we have not been led properly" and they despair about the fact and they feel that they deserve better government. They want efficient government, non-corrupt government and they haven't had it. It's difficult for me to say what the alternatives are. Plainly there are capable people in Pakistan who might be able to provide an alternative but they don't seem to win elections. All these allegations of corruption are vehemently denied by the parties involved but there is a widespread perception in Pakistan that those allegations have some truth. The Pakistani people face elections periodically, we don't know when the next one will be, but really that is a decision for them. Chris Gordon, UK: I was just wondering if much is yet known about whether the fragile relationship with India is threatened? Seeing as both are nuclear powers now, and Pakistan is virtually under Martial Law, is this new leadership in Pakistan going to be trigger happy? Owen Bennett-Jones: Well, I don't think trigger happy is the right phrase but it might complicate things. It's becoming increasingly clear that Narwaz Sharif and Atal Behari Vajpayee of India did try to have a pretty serious dialogue. That wasn't apparent at the time but I have spoken to people who were involved in the back channel diplomacy between the two men and it's pretty clear to me that they did try and discuss seriously the issue of Kashmir, actually get underway substantive discussions about Kashmir. That is quite significant because over the years, even to get toward substantive dialogue is very difficult. All the arguments have been about the process and not about the issue itself. They discussed the issue. Now, none of this was official and it wouldn't have committed either side to anything but none-the-less it was there and that indicates to me that the two men, if they were both in power might want to continue that process, despite what happened in Kargil. So the question is, will this be possible with general Musharraf? And I think the answer is it will be more difficult, because the military would surely find it more difficult to make compromises on Kashmir than a civilian politician. So, to that extent, I think the Indians are upset with what has happened. They think it is going to be more difficult to negotiate with the Pakistani military. I think it will slow down any process of rapprochement. Ahmed Khan, Canada: Does the Pakistani army side with hard-line Islamists? If so, what do you think that the effects of this will be on countries like Afghanistan? Owen Bennett-Jones: I think the answer to that is, there are different views in the army according to which part of the army they are in and which generation they are from. As I understand it, the senior leadership of the army tends to be less sympathetic to those kinds of views than younger people in the army. It is plainly the case that over the years Pakistan has provided support to the Taliban, and is one of only three countries that recognises the Taliban in Afghanistan. We simply don't know what General Musharraf's policy towards Afghanistan will be. It was interesting in just the weeks before he went Nawaz Sharif started to move against the Taliban. He said there were training camps in Afghanistan that were providing terrorists, as he put it, who came into Pakistan and were responsible for sectarian violence. He didn't actually name the Taliban as being responsible but it was none the less a significant statement and an unusual one from a Pakistani prime minister. Whether the army will want to continue with that line, and I am sure they will be equally anxious to put an end to the sectarian violence, so they might, will be interesting to see. It may be that they do or it may be that they feel their strategic interest is served by fostering a relationship with the Taliban, we'll have to see. Syed Viqar Haider, Pakistan: Do you think that the military government will be able to uproot the corruption in Pakistan by utilising the accountability commission despite the fact that the same military also have a historical record of extreme corruption? Owen Bennett-Jones: I think the answer is that it will be very difficult. You've got to remember that Pakistan is governed by an elite drawn from a certain section of society and the same families provide senior politicians and senior military officers. Though in many cases you will find that there are links between civilian politicians accused of corruption and senior military men. I imagine that what has happened in the past could happen again, which is lots of lists being drawn up of people accused of various things and then lots of haggling and back room deals going on over getting names removed from those lists. Already the bank accounts of senior politicians have been frozen, also their advisors, spouses and all the rest of it. But will it ever lead to corruption charges? Also, to be fair, it is very difficult to prove white-collar crime and it isn't easy to get these cases through courts successfully. So I must admit that I think the sense of optimism that exists is a little misplaced. People are encouraged by the fact that the accountability process under Narwaz Sharif was plainly so one-sided, it was used as a political tool, they feel that may now come to an end and the army might be more interested in even-handed accountability, going for people on the basis of whether they are corrupt or not rather than what party they belong to. To some extent that presumably will be true but whether they will be able to convict people across the board, fairly, in a way that doesn't exclude some people because of their powerful connections, we'll have to see. I rather doubt it. |
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