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Wednesday, 25 July, 2001, 11:12 GMT 12:12 UK
Indonesia crisis: Jonathan Head quizzed
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To listen to coverage of the forum, select the link below:
Indonesia's new President, Megawati Sukarnoputri, is moving to take control of the presidency, despite the refusal of her impeached predecessor Abdurrahman Wahid to step aside. Megawati said she would form a cabinet within days, ignoring Mr Wahid's refusal to leave the presidential palace. Indonesia is a huge country with a population of about 225 million people. It is riven with ethnic and religious divisions and its economy is faltering. Will changing the president solve the country's problems, and does she have enough support? Can Megawati resolve the nation's troubles? The BBC's Jonathan Head joined us live from Jakarta and answered a selection of your questions.
Highlights of interview:
This transition has been so much more peaceful than previous transitions - even more peaceful than Mr Wahid's own election to office 21 months ago. I think you really sense that Indonesians understand that they are not going to get their own perfect choice as president and that they desperately want to see some kind of stability and some kind of consistency in the presidency. Certainly President Wahid, even those who supported him recognise, was very erratic in his judgements and even those who believed in him recognised that he failed to get enough people on his side to sustain his presidency and there was an air of real inevitability about this change of president.
In East Java, most of the attacks by Mr Wahid's supporters have been on offices related to Mr Rais's former organisation, Muhammadiya. When we talk to them, they say this is their great dislike. It is a long-standing rivalry that goes back many decades about what form of Islam should be predominant in Indonesia: a modernist form with a potential of being rather more fundamentalist or a traditionalist form that absorbs lots of Javanese traditions. That rivalry could still erupt in some kind of violence but if it happens the chances are it would be contained in East Java - it wouldn't spread to the rest of the country where these divisions are not so keenly felt and I don't think it is an issue that preoccupies politicians today in the capital Jakarta.
But they are two very different kinds of leaders - radically different and I don't think they are really competing for the same kind of position in Indonesia. For all Dr Rais's enormous ambition he is a parliamentarian, an intellectual, a great negotiator but not a man who naturally inspires people and gets people passionately behind him. Megawati is not an intellectual, does not have much of a grasp for policy but is able to communicate with the ordinary people of Indonesia and does have this enormous affection based on her father's reputation as the founding president. I think with that, bearing in mind those very two different personalities, Dr Rais has a much tougher job presenting himself as a real alternative as a leader of this country. Although there is no doubt in all the manoeuvrings he has been involved in, he clearly does have his eye eventually on the presidency.
There is no doubt that the military has done very well out of this transition. It has played its cards very well indeed - its reputation was very tarnished at the beginning of the Wahid administration. But it has managed to play a neutral role and avoid being used by either side and managed to restore a lot of its credibility over the past few months by maintaining order during this very difficult transition. There are key military figures who have political ambitions and may indeed be strong candidates for the vice-presidency. Megawati herself has made it clear that she is very comfortable with the military - she has said she will back the kind of policies they adopt in troubled areas where there are a lot of separatism. That does not necessarily mean that she will be manipulated by them as a puppet. She does have the opportunity to appoint her own people who are loyal to her but respected in the military to give herself quite a clear influence over the military. The military itself is also divided - like most other institutions in Indonesia - and will probably be very grateful for consistency and strength of leadership which Megawati may be able to show them. Certainly she is likely to make them feel a lot more comfortable about their own role in holding the country together and their relationship is likely to be a much happier one than the one between Mr Wahid and the military. |
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