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Tuesday, February 3, 1998 Published at 17:30 GMT



Special Report

Troubled relations with the neighbours
image: [ Click the map to find out more about regional relations ]
Click the map to find out more about regional relations

In the Gulf War of 1991 a number of Arab and other Middle Eastern states joined and supported the allied coalition against Saddam Hussein. This time around, relations between Iraq and its neighbours are considerably more complex.

One reason for the decline in support, for the American position in particular, is the breakdown of the Middle East peace process - ascribed almost universally in the Arab world to the intransigence of Israeli Prime Minister, Binyamin Netanyahu.


[ image: Binyamin Netanyahu: resisting pressure from the US]
Binyamin Netanyahu: resisting pressure from the US
The result has been to bring Arab states closer together in opposition to Israel.

They have been willing to show greater defiance as a means of putting pressure on Israel's main ally, the United States. Their hope has been that this will prompt the US to turn the screw on Mr Netanyahu.

Arab states, including key US allies like Egypt, boycotted a US-backed regional economic conference in Qatar in November and then drove the point home by sending high level delegations, including heads of state, to an Islamic Conference, held in Iran, Washington's great adversary.

This had a knock-on effect on the Iraq crisis as the Arab states who had backed the west in the Gulf War now indicated that they would no longer support military action against Iraq.


[ image: Saddam Hussain: tired of UN sanctions]
Saddam Hussain: tired of UN sanctions
Many privately admit however that they would turn a blind eye to any attack, especially if it succeeded in removing Saddam Hussein.

Their public stance has to be more critical for the sake of placating domestic opinion, which is often more critical of the US and supportive of Iraq.


Relations with Iran

A major concern for western policy makers is a recent improvement of ties between Iran and Iraq.

The US has been following a policy of "Dual containment" on the two countries who fought a bitter war in the 1980s, but the American approach has only managed to push them closer together.

A decision was made in the summer to re-open the Iraqi border to Iranian religious pilgrims and the two sides had their highest level meeting since the Gulf war at the Islamic conference in Tehran in December.

Iran has also strengthened relations with other neighbours, like Saudi Arabia, and has voiced opposition to US military actions against Iraq.

Iraq and Turkey

The most obvious point of dissension between Islamic states at their conference in December was protest at the strengthening of Turkey's relations with Israel.

The two unlikely allies have been drawn together by a mutual suspicion of Syria, Iran and Iraq, as well as their common alliance with the US. But Turkey has indicated that it will not allow its bases to be used for US attacks against Iraq.

During the Gulf War these bases played a crucial role in air strikes. Since then Turkey has suffered from UN sanctions against Iraq.

Israeli fears

There have been reports that if the US attacks Iraq, Saddam Hussein could launch Scud missiles against Israel and that these may contain chemical or biological agents.


Israelis take precautions against a gas attack: Lyse Doucet reports
Residents of Tel Aviv, the most likely target of any attack, have been preparing for the eventuality by stocking up with gas masks.

Iraq fired 39 missiles at Israel during the 1991 Gulf War but the inaccuracy of the missiles meant that little damage was done and Israel was not dragged into the conflict.

There has been speculation that Israel would respond to any non-conventional attack with massive force, including the possibility of a nuclear strike, but most analysts reckon that Iraq will not risk a major attack on Israel.

Iraq and Jordan


[ image: King Hussein of Jordan: troubled relations]
King Hussein of Jordan: troubled relations
Relations between Jordan and Iraq deteriorated in December 1997 after Baghdad executed four Jordanian on charges of smuggling spare parts out of Iraq.

King Hussein, who had sought clemency, reacted with fury and expelled seven Iraqi diplomats from Amman.


Iraq and Syria

Iraq and Syria have been bitter rivals but recently relations have been improving, partly as both are worried by increased co-operation between arch-enemy, Israel, and Turkey.

Syria hopes better relations will prevent it becoming isolated and surrounded, while Saddam Hussein hopes better relations will relieve his isolation.


 





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