Pakistan faces era of hope and risk

By M Ilyas Khan
BBC News, Karachi

Can Zardari (l) and Sharif bury their differences?

The exit of President Pervez Musharraf from the political stage in Pakistan opens up an era of both possibilities and risks for the country.

The alliance that came to power after the elections in February will now really have to get to grips with its biggest challenges - a possible economic meltdown and the growing militant threat in the north-western tribal areas bordering Afghanistan.

If they fail, it may spell the end of the hopes of Pakistan ever becoming a successful democracy.

The key for failure or success lies with the two largest parties in the alliance, the Pakistan People's Party (PPP) and the Pakistan Muslim League-Nawaz (PML-N).

In the six months since the elections, they have spent much of their energy arguing about what to do with President Musharraf.

In fact, the alliance came close to a split in May when they could not agree then on whether to impeach Mr Musharraf and whether to try to reinstate the judges he had sacked in November 2007.

So with Mr Musharraf out of the way, will things get better?

Can they put their need to collaborate above the narrow interests of each party?

Strains

The PPP emerged as the largest party in February elections but failed to win a simple majority in the parliament.

Lawyers celebrate outside the presidential palace in Islamabad

Many analysts believe it wants to expand its influence in the PML-N's power base in the province of Punjab, where more than half of the country's voters live.

A couple of recent PPP moves in this direction have caused strains in the alliance.

But the reinstatement of the judges could be a bigger problem.

The issue has been central to PML-N chief Nawaz Sharif's recent politics, and is generally believed to have added to his increased popularity in the post-election period.

But the PPP is said to be inclined to keep some of the judges, including deposed Chief Justice Iftikhar Chaudhry, out of a restoration deal, a condition which Mr Sharif has so far resisted.

Many say PPP leader Asif Zardari fears that Justice Chaudhry may outlaw a legal arrangement under which corruption cases against him were withdrawn, paving the way for his return to the country last year.

Fractured country

The more optimistic view is that Mr Sharif and Mr Zardari have compelling reasons to bury their differences.

Ordinary Pakistanis are desperate for economic improvement

The political future of both leaders lies in their ability to deliver in political as well as economic terms, a task which no single party can perform on its own, given the fractured state of the country.

In the coming days, the two men will come under increasing pressure to tackle severe food and fuel inflation, falling reserves, a yawning trade gap and an overall slowdown in economic growth.

In addition, they will continue to face questions over their proposed legal reforms, and the fate of hundreds of 'missing' persons - most of them political activists allegedly being held incommunicado by the intelligence agencies.

And there's another big reason why the two men cannot afford to fail.

Both have been victims of military coups in the past, and it is only through joint action that they can hope to survive another attempt by Pakistan's powerful military to keep a civilian government under its influence.

It is widely thought here that success on both counts will require the political as well as economic backing of Western powers, notably the US.

This will also bring Western pressure on the country's army to deal with the militants more effectively, analysts say.

And that leads on to another long-standing problem that democratic governments face in Pakistan.

The military question

How can this coalition make sure that the military conducts its operations in the way the civilian government wants, rather than in the way the military wants?

Will the military do the bidding of Pakistan's civilian government?

The military's present campaign in the Bajaur tribal region is its first credible assault on a suspected al-Qaeda stronghold in several years, but questions remain over how far it will go.

A similar operation in South Waziristan in the winter of 2007 was called off just when most analysts expected a final triumph over the militant groups based there.

Similarly, the government will have to redefine Pakistan's relations with India in the light of what it sees to be the country's national security interests, rather than letting the military dictate the agenda.

In the past, both the PPP and the PML-N have worked for peace with India.

In late 1980s, the PPP government's alleged attempt to help India overcome the Sikh insurgency in the Indian Punjab brought accusations of a sell-out against then prime minister, Benazir Bhutto, from a group of ex-army generals.

The last attempt in 1998 by Nawaz Sharif, then prime minister, to normalise relations with India was derailed when the Pakistani army infiltrated the Kargil region in Kashmir.

Mr Sharif says that Mr Musharraf, then army chief, ordered the operation without informing his government.

So the challenges facing the new government are great indeed, and no one is underestimating the risks of failure.