US in a bind over Pakistan militants

By Brajesh Upadhyay
BBC News, Washington

Militants have extended their influence across Pakistan

The US has given its clearest support yet for the new Pakistani government's efforts to strike a deal with militants.

Backing comes even though the state department blames al-Qaeda's resurgence on President Musharraf's botched peace agreements in the tribal areas the rebels operate from.

Many believe this shift in US strategy may be more through compulsion than choice.

In its annual terrorism report, the US state department said al-Qaeda had reconstituted some of its pre-9/11 operational capabilities and the primary reason for this resurgence was instability coupled with Islamabad-brokered ceasefire agreements along the Pakistan-Afghanistan frontier.

"This [ceasefire] appears to have provided the al-Qaeda leadership greater mobility and ability to conduct training and operational planning," said state department counter-terrorism co-ordinator Dell Dailey.

'New US focus'

So, why does the US believe a new agreement will work where others have failed in the past?

We think that all the tools are in place for this treaty to have a successful outcome Dell Dailey, US Department of State Al-Qaeda 'greatest threat' to US US 'lacks Pakistan terror policy'

Firstly, says Mr Daley, there's an "awful lot of attention" from the United States and, secondly, hardliners in the Federally-Administered Tribal Areas lost most of their seats in general elections in February.

This has given Pakistan's former opposition parties who are now in coalition a chance to really move forward, US officials argue.

They also point to the economic and social development plan and military support that the United States is funding to the tune of $150m a year for the next five years and a large amount of money from the Pakistani government.

"We think that all the tools are in place for this treaty to have a successful outcome," said Mr Daley.

Fractious militants

It's the first time the Bush administration has come out so openly in support of a possible peace deal between Pakistan and tribal militants.

Last week White House spokesperson Dana Perino expressed concern over such a deal, saying "we have been concerned about these types of approaches because we don't think they work".

But a shift was noticed when Assistant Secretary of State Richard Boucher said the United States is with the new Pakistani government and supports talks if the results are positive.

'Nightmare scenario'

Former CIA official and Pakistan expert Bruce Riedel says the fact is that the United States is "deeply troubled" over this development.

Taleban spread their wings High stakes on border

But he says there's also a realisation that the new government has a mandate from the Pakistani people to try a different approach from one that has failed so far.

"What we are going to see is an administration that's very critical and sceptical in private but which has very little capability to influence the outcome and is going to be largely a bystander," says Mr Riedel, who has been senior adviser to three US presidents on Middle East and South Asian issues.

An unnamed Bush administration official quoted by The New York Times conceded this, saying: "We have only a marginal ability to influence actions right now."

The worst nightmare for Washington is the possibility of an attack on American soil planned from Pakistan's tribal belt.

Several intelligence officials have voiced this fear and they hope their efforts to cripple al-Qaeda's safe havens in the tribal areas are not jeopardised by these negotiations.

"It's also a nightmare scenario for Pakistan and the Pakistani government should be thinking about it," says Mr Riedel.

Should there be any evidence of a plot against the United States centred in Pakistan - or worse a successful attack that is linked back to Pakistan - there's going to be a crisis and a wise policy on the Pakistan government's part would be to do what it can now to prevent this, he says.