Views of Pakistan from abroad

Pakistan is preparing to vote in a parliamentary election that has been preceded by political violence and concerns about fraud.

How are the elections being viewed in other countries that take a close interest in Pakistan's fortunes?

AFGHANISTAN - Alastair Leithead

Afghanistan has a love-hate relationship with Pakistan. Finger pointing is a favourite pastime, especially when it comes to explaining why things here aren't going well.

Millions of Afghans were refugees in Pakistan and hundreds of thousands are still there. The country depends on Pakistani exports to survive but there is a lot of animosity.

Afghans rely on trade with neighbouring Pakistan

So when things go badly in Pakistan, food and commodity prices go up in Afghanistan and people feel the pinch.

Abdul Wassi, a shopkeeper in Kabul, makes this point really clearly: "If the election goes well there, things will improve for us," he says.

"If not, it'll be negative because of all the imports of everything, food and clothes. The cost of things will go up even higher."

There have been noticeable price increases over the past couple of months, especially since Benazir Bhutto was killed.

Political commentators are hoping, for very good reason, that the military will not get involved, and the democratic process will be allowed to operate independently.

"The situation here in Afghanistan depends on what happens in Pakistan," said Sanjar Sohail, from the Afghan daily newspaper Hasht-e Sobh, or Eight AM.

"Many things here are related to Pakistan - whenever they declare a state of emergency, the security situation in Afghanistan is affected."

Prices of goods in Kabul fluctuate according to tensions in Pakistan

There were great hopes for a better relationship if Benazir Bhutto had become prime minister.

Cooperation is needed to tackle the problem of insurgents crossing the border and going beyond the reach of the US and Nato forces in Afghanistan who want to target known commanders.

And with the growing insecurity in the tribal areas along the border it's becoming increasingly important to Pakistan's future as well.

UNITED KINGDOM - Paul Reynolds

There is deep concern in London about the future of Pakistan.

This arises not just from the fear that unrest in the tribal areas on the Afghan frontier adds to the influence of the Taleban in Afghanistan, but from the links between Pakistan and terrorism in Britain.

The 7 July bomb attacks on London were traced to Pakistan

Recently, the former deputy head of Britain's MI6 secret service, Nigel Inkster, who is now with the International Institute for Strategic Studies in London, highlighted British fears when he publicly named pro-Taleban commander Baitullah Mehsud, who comes from South Waziristan in Pakistan, as "public enemy number one".

The British hope is that elections can lead to greater stability in Pakistan. But there is recognition that elections by themselves are not enough.

The Foreign Secretary David Miliband set out the formal British position in a speech on 12 February 2008.

"In Pakistan, the path to democracy begins with free and fair elections, but it needs deeper roots: an independent judiciary, a commitment from the army to stay out of politics, and devolution of powers to states and local government," he said.

Behind that formal expression of policy lies a hands-on approach that shows how deep the fear for Pakistan lies.

Near panic set in among senior British officials last November when Gen Musharraf declared a state of emergency and sacked the Supreme Court.

Britain fears instability in Pakistan could lead to fresh attacks

Led by a former British High Commissioner to Pakistan, Mark Lyall Grant, who is now political director of the Foreign Office, the British and US governments acted to try to unscramble Gen Musharraf's actions and put the country on the road to greater democracy.

This is seen as vital in combating the Islamists inside Pakistan.

Then there was the catastrophe of the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, whose return to Pakistan the British government had encouraged.

Nobody in London expects Pakistan to settle down anytime soon.

One London-based observer remarked recently: "The best one can hope for is that Pakistan will muddle through as it has done in past crises, with continuing oscillations between military and civilian rule."

INDIA - Soutik Biswas

India and Pakistan have fought three wars, two of them over Kashmir, since both became independent from British rule in 1947.

The nuclear-armed neighbours nearly went to war a fourth time in 2002.

Indian and Pakistani forces have faced off in several conflicts

They began peace moves in 2004 but progress slowed after India blamed Pakistan for the 2006 Mumbai train blasts.

Travel and sport links have been restored since then but little progress has been made over Indian-administered Kashmir.

Chaos and uncertainty in Pakistan appears to have slowed down the peace process anyway.

In this context, India has mixed feelings about the upcoming elections in Pakistan. Indians were not upbeat about the elections in the first place.

National Security Advisor MK Narayanan summed up the establishment mood in a television interview before Benazir Bhutto's assassination when he said India was sceptical of a future Pakistani government under Ms Bhutto.

"Her track record is not necessarily something that would make us believe that she will follow to the letter and spirit of what she has said," Mr Narayanan told a television interviewer.

Ms Bhutto had spoken about closing down terrorist camps, private militias and had hinted at giving Indian detectives access to some militant leaders who were wanted in India and allegedly living in Pakistan.

The establishment's scepticism is shared by many.

"As part of the historical record, there is not much to choose between civilian governments and military regimes in Pakistan when it comes to an amicable relationship with India," says analyst Harish Khare.

The row over Indian-administered Kashmir overshadows relations

Analysts point to the fact that it was during Ms Bhutto's premiership that the situation in Kashmir took a turn for the worse. And it was during Nawaz Sharif's time in power that the Kargil conflict happened.

Harish Khare sums up India's mixed emotions and dilemma about Pakistani elections.

"It is entirely natural that we in India should prefer a 'democratic' Pakistan to a military ruled one.

"Yet is it necessary for us to be so totally blind to the realities in Pakistan as to ignore the complete absence of any political party system and still hope for a genuine, free and fair election-based democracy?"

In the end, political party or military dictator, India wants to see an end to the cross-border militancy in Kashmir, and will possibly back any ruler across the border - elected or not - who will ensure that.

UNITED STATES - Laura Smith-Spark

Although the American people are more focused on their nation's own presidential race, Washington's interest in - and concern about - Pakistan's elections can perhaps be gauged by the number of high-ranking military and intelligence officials it has despatched to Islamabad in recent weeks.

Among them were the top military officer in the US, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Adm Michael Mullen, CIA Director Michael Hayden and Deputy Secretary of State John Negroponte.

Adm Michael Mullen was among top US officials recently in Pakistan

The stakes for the US in Monday's election are high: the US has backed President Pervez Musharraf since an alliance was forged in the wake of the 9/11 terror attacks and it views Pakistan as a vital ally in the self-declared war on terror and fight against al-Qaeda.

The political unrest linked to Mr Musharraf's imposition of emergency rule last year and the assassination of Benazir Bhutto has dealt a blow to Washington's strategy in the region - the restoration of democracy in Pakistan in order to offer an alternative path, away from militancy and extremism.

The US is now looking to the elections to stabilise what it is all too aware is a nuclear-armed nation and ensure that Islamabad's collaboration in the fight against terror - to support which Washington has given more than $10bn in aid to Pakistan - continues.

But there is perhaps a sense of frustration in Washington about the limitations as to what the US can do to make that happen.

Richard Boucher, Assistant US Secretary of State, told the national security and foreign affairs panel of the US House of Representatives late last month that "if history was any guide", some fraud was to be expected in Pakistan's elections.

However, he urged Congressmen not to give up on the idea that a new leadership could emerge from "a legitimate process" and said US embassy teams were doing what they could to monitor voting.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice told Congress she was concerned about the potential for election violence and voting irregularities.

But, she added: "I believe that the Pakistani leadership understands that they have to have an election that inspires confidence in the Pakistani people that this is a step forward for democracy."

Islamists accuse the US of attacks in Pakistan

At the same time, the US will be aware that it needs to tread sensitively given strong currents of anti-Americanism in Pakistani public opinion.

A Pew Global Attitudes survey published in December found that only 15% of Pakistanis have a positive view of the US.

And, while most Pakistanis support the idea of free and fair elections, more than half believe the US only supports democracy when it serves Washington's interest.

As for what outcome Washington may hope to see, observers suggest a sweeping win for Mrs Bhutto's PPP party, as opposed to that of Mr Musharraf, might be welcome because it would reinforce the perception that elections were free and fair.

That might act to stabilise the country, leaving the military freer to focus on the "war on terror" - and, observers add, the Bush administration would prefer to work with a PPP prime minister than with one from the opposition Nawaz Sharif camp.

IRAN - Pam O'Toole

The Iranian government has remained largely silent on the subject of Pakistan's elections, but like other regional powers, Iran will be watching developments there closely.

Pakistani nuclear scientist, AQ Khan, helped Iran

Iran was the first country to recognise Pakistan after partition in 1947 and the predominantly Muslim nations have longstanding cultural and economic ties.

There is active trade between the two and talks are underway on a project to pipe Iranian gas to India across Pakistani soil.

Pakistan - a nuclear power itself - has strongly supported Iran's right to a peaceful nuclear programme. The founder of its nuclear programme, AQ Khan, leaked nuclear secrets to Iran.

Both countries are neighbours of Afghanistan and, as such, have suffered the consequences of decades of war there. Iran and Pakistan are increasingly reluctant hosts to millions of Afghan refugees and illegal migrants and recently pledged to work together more closely to combat drug trafficking from Afghanistan.

But there have also been underlying tensions. In the past, some Pakistanis suspected that predominantly Shia Iran was linked to the sectarian violence which has plagued Pakistan since the 1979 Islamic Revolution in Teheran and Islamabad disapproved of the close relations between Iran and India.

Meanwhile Teheran has long been suspicious of Pakistan's close ties with the United States. And Islamabad's support for the radical Sunni Taleban administration which governed Afghanistan in the late 1990s caused further strains in relations.

The restive Baloch ethnic minority which straddles the two countries' borders has also been a source of friction. In the past, the Pakistani media has accused Iran of stirring up trouble in Balochi areas of Pakistan. More recently, Iran accused Pakistan of not doing enough to control its borders amid allegations that members of an armed Iranian Balochi group which has carried out a number of attacks in Iran escaped to Pakistan.

Relations have warmed since the fall of the Taleban in 2001, with both sides stressing the need to further improve ties.

Iran has refrained from expressing any opinion on the forthcoming polls.

But it is likely that Teheran, which in the past has accused the Taleban of bringing Islam into disrepute, would be alarmed if these elections were to result in the strengthening of Pakistani parties who support radical Sunni Islamic groups, including Afghan Taleban fighters who have taken shelter in Pakistan's tribal border areas.