Election fervour grips Bhutto supporters

By M Ilyas Khan
BBC News, Larkana, Sindh province

Ali Bukhsh, a resident of Pakistan's southern Sindh province, says he has two passions in life.

PPP supporters are upbeat about their party's prospects

One is his belief in mystical Islam. He has devoted his life to serving pilgrims at the shrine of Sindh's most popular saint, Lal Shahbaz Qalandar.

The other is his love for the Pakistan Peoples Party (PPP), the country's largest political grouping.

This feeling is shared by many people in Sindh, a province known both for its powerful feudal lords and for the shrines of some of the oldest mystic saints of the Indian subcontinent.

In December, the assassination of PPP chief Benazir Bhutto sparked riots across the country, bringing life to a complete halt for more than three days.

Sindh, her native province, was the worst hit.

Weeks later, popular grief and anger seem to have been transformed among Ms Bhutto's supporters into a desire to defeat the ruling PML-Q party, which they blame for her assassination, at polls due on 18 February.

During a recent 900km drive around some districts of upper Sindh, I got a feeling that election campaigners from the parties other than the PPP had simply lost touch with the people.

Low turnout

In four districts that I crisscrossed in two days, I did not see a single election office set up by the PML-Q candidates, and only a few billboards for the party in areas where powerful landowners opposed to the PPP can establish their writ.

But the PPP flags were everywhere, and every other man on the street appeared to be a PPP supporter.

Sahib Khan and Mohammad Salim, both in early 20s, are two such people.

The Bhuttos and Sufi saints both dedicated their lives to the poor Ali Buksh

Farmers from Moro town, they both cycled for two days across a 170km stretch to reach Ms Bhutto's native Garhi Khuda Bukhsh village for her chehlum - the 40th day when the period of mourning for a deceased person comes to an end.

They were bracing themselves for the return journey, just as strong icy winds begin to lash the land.

"We will be alright," says Sahib Khan. "Benazir gave her life for us. We will give our life for her."

Will these sentiments translate into votes in a country where voter turnout has ranged between an abysmal 30% and just a little over 40% in the past?

When the election schedule was announced in November, critics said the arrangements could lead to a low voter turnout.

Backlash

The first dampener for voter interest came when President Musharraf appointed an interim government of mostly PML-Q sympathisers to oversee the elections.

Secondly, he declined to concede the opposition's demand to suspend district governments, most of which are controlled by the PML-Q appointees.

Opposition demands for an independent election commission were also brushed aside.

The result, critics said, was an institutional structure heavily tilted in the PML-Q's favour.

There is relatively little evidence of PML-Q support in Sindh

Local election observer groups have pointed out several instances of patronage being extended to the PML-Q candidates by both the interim government and the district governments.

The election commission has no powers to enforce rules and has only been acting as a post office between the complainants and government departments.

Before Ms Bhutto's assassination, there were also reports of the intelligence agencies pressuring PML-Q opponents in Punjab and Sindh to drop out of the contest or change parties.

But the countrywide backlash that followed her death and the international pressure it brought to bear on the government seem to have changed the dynamics of the situation.

Scare

For one, army chief Gen Ashfaq Pervez Kayani has publicly ordered military officials not to indulge in politics.

The polling officials, most of whom are thought to be PML-Q appointees, are also likely to be under pressure to conduct the election in a transparent manner.

As hopes grow for a competitive election, voter interest has been revived, creating a chance that a single party may win a clear majority.

Excitement is growing in anticipation of February's polls

But observers point out that several recent incidents of firing on election gatherings in Punjab may be designed to scare voters.

In Karachi, the capital of Sindh, the recent killing of two ethnic Pashtun student leaders within a week is being seen as an attempt to pit Pashtuns against the Urdu-speaking people.

Whatever the impact on other voters, saint Lal Shahbaz Qalandar's mystic servant, Ali Bukhsh, says he will not be affected.

"I did not vote in the 2002 elections because it was no use. The government was planning to rig them," he says.

But this time it is different. Come 18 February, he intends to take a 60km bus ride to his home town, Mehar, where he is registered to vote.