'Failed state' warning on Afghanistan

By Nick Childs
World Affairs Correspondent

Nato troops are under increasing pressure in Afghanistan

Nato faces "a critical week" over its Afghanistan policy, a senior expert at the International Institute for Strategic Studies (IISS) has warned.

The warning came as the London-based think-tank published its annual report, the Military Balance 2008, which argues that Afghanistan faces becoming "a failed state" if operations by the Nato-led force, Isaf, in the country are unsuccessful.

Nato defence ministers will meet in Lithuania on Thursday against the background of renewed tensions between the United States and other key member states - notably Germany - over troop contributions to Afghanistan.

US Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice is also due to hold talks in London on Wednesday with her British opposite number, David Miliband, and UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown.

Critical week

The IISS's senior fellow for conflict and defence diplomacy, Christopher Langton, said that this week was critical for the alliance because members faced new calls for increased troop contributions.

Map of main troop deployments

"The alliance is under a lot of strain," he said. "There are big questions over countries' ability to sustain operations."

Canada has been the latest to warn it could pull its contingent of 2,500 troops out of the country.

There are growing signs of unease in official circles too about the sustainability of the international effort

Overall, the IISS's new report echoes the tone of a number of other studies in the last week - including two emerging from the United States.

The IISS also expresses its concern that the government of President Hamid Karzai "still lacks authority in much of the country".

Major Western governments like those of the United States and Britain have tended to play down these recent reports, insisting that progress is being made, including on the military front.

'Stern' letter exchange

But there are growing signs of unease in official circles too about the sustainability of the international effort.

Most obviously, US Defence Secretary Robert Gates raised tensions when he appeared to criticise the efforts of some Nato allies operating in southern Afghanistan.

The German media has also reported an exchange of "stern" letters between Mr Gates and his German counterpart over US calls for Germany to beef up its effort in Afghanistan.

And Mr Gates reluctantly agreed recently to send an extra 3,200 US marines to the country, having previously suggested that the extra troops should be provided by other countries.

This is, of course, just the latest bout of tensions in what has been a long-running debate over the nature and scale of the Nato-led operation.

It has been given added urgency by worries about the upsurge of violence in the country, as well as new signs of friction between major Western governments and the Karzai administration.

This tension was clear to see when the Afghan president essentially vetoed the appointment of the British politician Paddy Ashdown to the role of an enhanced UN representative, in an effort to improve the co-ordination of the international aid and military efforts in the country.

As yet, there is little sign of any significant shift in prospect to close the gaps within Nato.

At the same time, the IISS says it is concerned about the slow pace of development of the Afghan security forces, with the critical weakness being in the Afghan police force, which is described as corrupt, poorly-trained, and a ready target of insurgents.

'Surge' results

The IISS says that it is also concerned at a "lack of coherence" that bedevils much of the international effort in Afghanistan.

Another major factor, it says, is instability in Pakistan, which is giving impetus to the insurgency in Afghanistan.

MILITARY BALANCE HIGHLIGHTS Assessment of developments of unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) technology Review of the European and US defence industries in 2007 Assessments of ground, naval and air capabilities for the US, Russia and China In-depth coverage of defence economics issues

On Iraq, the IISS says that the "surge" of US troop numbers has clearly delivered results, but that violence levels are still high. And it says that political progress in the country has been insubstantial, with the Iraqi government - at the top level - "fractured and largely ineffectual".

It is concerned the added strain of increased commitments in Afghanistan will further increase pressure for a reduction in US troop numbers in Iraq. But it warns against too rapid a reduction there, which could threaten new instability.

The Military Balance probably had its heyday when it charted the balance of power between the West and the Warsaw Pact in the Cold War.

And there is at least an echo of that now. Among the IISS's concerns now are the new tensions resulting from Russia's new assertiveness, and its decision to suspend its observance of the Conventional Forces in Europe treaty.

If Russia withdraws completely, the report says, this could have negative consequences in Europe, introducing new tensions between Russia and its neighbours.

And it could be another step in "the unravelling of the infrastructure of European arms control".

ISAF TROOP DEPLOYMENTS IN AFGHANISTAN

Countries contributing more than 1,000 troops as of December 2007

Canada 1,730 France 1,292 Germany 3,155 Italy 2,358 Netherlands 1,512

Poland 1,141 Turkey 1,219 UK 7,753 US 15,038

Source: ISAF

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