Taleban to dominate Bush-Karzai talks

By Jonathan Beale
BBC News, Washington

According to UK Prime Minister Gordon Brown, Afghanistan - not Iraq - is the front line in the "battle" - not war - against international terrorism.

Civilian casualties have tested relations in previous meetings

This is not a view entirely shared by US President George W Bush.

But the meeting at Camp David with Afghanistan's President Hamid Karzai shows that Afghanistan's future is still a cause of concern for America's commander-in-chief.

Almost six years after the US-led invasion, the country's progress from the shadow of the Taleban to stable democracy is still painfully slow.

Taleban demand

The kidnapping of a large group of South Korean Christian aid workers by the Taleban has added a sense of urgency to what have been billed as "informal talks".

The rebels are demanding the release of Taleban prisoners.

A senior state department official said that "all pressures" needed to be applied to seek the hostages' release - hinting at the possibility of a military response. But in reality that seems very unlikely.

There should be no mistake of our commitment to a successful democracy in Afghanistan Tony Snow White House spokesman

No doubt Mr Bush wants to press Hamid Karzai to stand firm against such threats from the Taleban.

The US was highly critical of a prisoner exchange in March that freed not just an Italian hostage - but a senior Taleban commander.

Publicly the Bush administration sees this latest move by the Taleban as evidence that it is being pushed from all sides - resorting to kidnapping, terror and extortion because it can no longer mount a major military offensive.

The hope is that such tactics will alienate extremists from the local population.

There is little evidence to suggest, however, that the Taleban are close to collapse.

Growing strains

The battle against the Taleban is one of the main issues at hand.

The Taleban have adopted tactics from Iraq's insurgency

There is no doubting that coalition forces are confronting the enemy.

But according to the UN, at least 600 Afghan civilians have also been killed this year in insurgency-related violence - many have been the casualties of coalition firepower.

It has caused a strain in the past between President Karzai and Mr Bush.

Afghanistan's president has criticised the coalition for not doing enough to protect civilians, and has also called for more control of military operations.

There are strains too with America's other "partner" in its "war on terror" - Pakistan.

Mr Karzai has accused Pakistani President Pervez Musharraf of not doing enough to stem the flow of fighters across his border.

In return General Musharraf says that it is Afghanistan's government that cannot control its own territory.

'Financial surge'

President Bush will want to play down these differences as he needs both countries' support.

"There should be no mistake of our commitment to a successful democracy in Afghanistan," said White House spokesman Tony Snow ahead of the meeting.

This year the US is spending $10bn (£5bn) to help the country get back on track.

Most of that money is being spent on a "financial surge" to help build up Afghanistan's own security forces.

Afghans say too many civilians are being killed in the fighting

But next year Mr Karzai can only count on getting half that money. President Bush is now looking for results.

For President Karzai that means tackling corruption and taking on local warlords and militias to assert his government's authority.

It also means getting to grips with poppy cultivation. Even US officials admit that opium production is likely to be high next year.

So even though - in public - the two leaders will seek to emphasise progress being made, much of their discussions will focus on the same thorny issues that have beset Mr Karzai since he first took power.

There is also a new threat that is ringing alarm bells in Washington: Iran's rising influence.

US officials recently accusing Tehran of supplying the Taleban with weapons to attack coalition forces.