Can Taleban recover from biggest setback?

Rahimullah Yusufzai, Peshawar

Previous reports of his death or capture had proved untrue

The killing of Mullah Dadullah Akhund in a joint military operation by US, Nato and Afghan army forces on 12 May is the biggest blow to the Taleban since it lost power in Afghanistan in December 2001.

In recent months the Taleban have suffered a number of setbacks.

They lost one of their top military commanders, Akhtar Mohammad Osmani, in December 2006 when a laser-guided missile fired by a pilotless US Predator plane destroyed his vehicle in Helmand province.

Subsequently, another important commander, Mullah Obaidullah, who was deputy to the Taleban movement's founder and leader, Mullah Mohammad Omar, was reportedly captured by Pakistan's security forces.

But Dadullah's death is a bigger loss because he had become the public face of the Taleban through his frequent interaction with the world media.

He had also acquired the reputation of a fearless fighter who led his men from the front. This despite his obvious disability - he lost his left leg in past fighting in Afghanistan against Soviet forces.

Suicide inspiration

Dadullah was the operational commander for the Taleban in four provinces in south-western and central Afghanistan.

MULLAH DADULLAH Key Taleban military leader Brutal and extreme leader Lost a leg fighting in Kabul in 1996 Thought to be in his 40s Hero in eyes of Taleban rank and file

These included his native Uruzgan, Nimroz bordering Iran, Kandahar where the Taleban movement was born in late 1994 and which became its spiritual capital, and Helmand which has produced more Taleban fighters than any other province in Afghanistan.

Dadullah often claimed that there were 12,000 Taliban fighters under his command. The claim wasn't very convincing but there is little doubt that no other Taleban commander had more fighters under his command than the 41-year old Dadullah.

He was also the inspiration for Taleban suicide bombers, who totalled from 500 to 2,000 if one were to believe Dadullah.

On numerous occasions he produced videos showing him hugging would-be suicide bombers or speaking to them. In one such videotape, he described the suicide bombers, or "fidayeen" as he called them, as "our cruise and Stinger missiles."

Dadullah's high-profile presence in the media enabled him to overshadow all other Taleban military commanders.

He was the first high-ranking Taliban leader to show his face while giving television interviews after the fall of their government in 2001.

It annoyed some Taleban leaders who felt that the taking and showing of pictures of human-beings was un-Islamic.

Others became angry when he started ordering and filming beheadings of 'spies' and kidnapped persons as it gave the Taleban a bad name.

Ruthless

However, such tactics made him sort of a cult figure among the Taleban rank and file.

They were already impressed with his daring escape from northern Afghanistan when almost 2,000 Taleban fighters were trapped and imprisoned by the Northern Alliance in late 2001.

Taleban leader Mullah Omar (c) still evades capture

Dadullah was a ruthless man. He was accused of carrying out massacres of ethnic Hazaras, who are Shias, in Bamiyan and Balkh provinces.

He showed no mercy to his vanquished rivals after Taleban victories.

Dadullah's ruthlessness once forced Mullah Omar to remove him from his position as a military commander and send him home.

However, he was pressed into service again when the Taleban needed an inspirational commander to fight the advancing Northern Alliance forces following the US invasion of Afghanistan in 2001.

He was one of the few Taleban commanders who started resisting the US-led coalition forces within months of the fall of the Taleban regime.

Mullah Omar rewarded him in 2003-2004 by naming him on the high-powered 10-member Taleban Rahbari Shura, or Leadership Council, made up of military commanders.

In due course, he became the "most wanted" Taleban leader along with Mullah Omar and Jalaluddin Haqqani, who until now have evaded capture.

Dadullah was a high-value target for the US-led coalition hunting al-Qaeda and Taleban fighters in Afghanistan in view of his organisational abilities as a military commander.

Mourning

It is obvious that the Taleban will take time to recover from Dadullah's loss.

His death has shocked and demoralised them and right now they are in mourning. Finding a replacement would be difficult.

It will take the Taleban time to recover from Dadullah's loss

Mullah Omar may not even name a replacement but may let other Taleban commanders share Dadullah's duties.

In fact, three of the original 10 members of the Taliban Leadership Council have been killed and one was captured but Mullah Omar has refrained from publicly announcing their replacements.

The Taleban operate in small groups in their own districts and provinces and guerrilla attacks are indigenously planned and launched.

It is rare that instructions are received from the top Taleban leaders to carry out a particular attack or ambush.

The difficulties and risks involved in communicating with each other have prompted the Taleban to act independently in small cells.

Still it is possible that the Taleban military operations in the four provinces that were under Dadullah's command would be affected.

The Taleban leadership could order a review of their military options and tactics in view of the heavy losses that they have suffered in recent months.

In particular, the killing of important Taleban commanders could prompt the leadership to find out if their ranks have been infiltrated.

However, in the long term the killing of Dadullah is unlikely to slow down the Taleban insurgency or prompt any of their fighters to give up.

It is even possible that some of the diehard supporters of Dadullah decide to avenge his death by launching more attacks and sending an even greater number of bombers on suicide missions.