Sri Lanka's displaced face uncertainty

By Ethirajan Anbarasan
BBC News

The army disrupted supplies to the region as part of their strategy

At last, a human tragedy was averted in eastern Sri Lanka as the much feared final battle for Vakarai in Batticaloa district did not happen.

Over 9,000 civilians, most of them war-displaced, were living amid relentless artillery and mortar duels in the rebel-held town, about 240km (150 miles) east of the capital, Colombo.

The Vakarai region was already facing severe food and medicine shortage before the army started squeezing supplies to try to capture it from Tamil Tiger rebels.

But Tamil Tiger rebels withdrew into the jungles north of Vakarai in Batticaloa district, avoiding a bloody face-to-face battle with the army.

If it had happened, no doubt there would have been severe civilian casualties.

Thousands of civilians have now crossed into government-controlled parts of Batticaloa seeking shelter, food and safety.

Now, the four-month battle over Vakarai seems to have come to an end.

But this is not the end of the conflict.

Sporadic clashes are still going on in the area.

Bouncing back?

It is likely that sooner or later the security forces could bring most of the coastal areas from Trincomalee to Batticaloa under their control.

For the first time in the last ten years or so, rebels' dominance in the eastern region will be considerably diminished.

The capture of Vakarai may not be strategically important in military terms, but it is likely to give a much-needed psychological boost to the security forces, still reeling from a deadly suicide attack on a convoy of naval sailors last year.

We know what had happened to many households in Jaffna in the name of high security zones. People are still unable to return to their homes Displaced civilian

The civilian casualties in the Vakarai fighting were also attracting international concern and condemnation.

With the fall of Vakarai, the security forces now seem to have a chance to corner the Tamil rebels in the parts of the interior, elsewhere in Batticaloa district.

But seasoned Sri Lankan watchers say that the Tamil rebels are known for their resilience and that they will come back with some spectacular counter strikes elsewhere on the island nation.

Neither side seem to be respecting the Norwegian-brokered 2002 ceasefire agreement, which exists only on paper. Both sides blame each other for the escalation of violence.

Fighting flared up in the east when the Tamil rebels allegedly blocked a crucial waterway in Trincomalee district last year. Soon after, the military ended up capturing the strategically important town of Sampur from the rebels.

Now with the fall of Vakarai, the rebels are under pressure to achieve some sort of a military success, to convince their supporters living both inside and outside Sri Lanka.

'Subdued'

Already, some of their diaspora supporters, who make substantial financial contributions to the movement, have expressed concerns over the rebels' unusual silence in a few blogging sites.

Surprisingly, Tamil rebels did not offer any immediate reaction to the army's march into Vakarai.

In a statement issued hours later, they talked about humanitarian suffering in Vakarai and their decision to "readjust positions" and "pull back" from the area in rather muted language.

It is clear that the Sri Lankan army could shift its focus onto the northern rebel strongholds once the entire east is secured.

As most of their elite fighting units and weapons intact, the Tamil rebels are not going to lie low for long.

However, with most of their cadres and firepower concentrated in the north it appears that it may be difficult for them to regain territory in the east.

Whatever may be their reason for their recent debacles in the east, the Tamil Tigers are now probably facing the impact of renegade commander Karuna's decision to break away from the rebel movement in 2004.

The rebels' former eastern commander disbanded most of the eastern wing and asked nearly 3,000 fighters to go home before he went underground.

Local journalists say with Karuna gradually trying to assert himself in the eastern region, the Tamil Tigers are finding it difficult to recruit former cadres or find fresh recruits in the region.

Nevertheless, it appears that more fighting is on the cards. But, so far, civilians seem to have been the worst hit in the ongoing conflict. Their suffering will continue for some time to come.

Weary scepticism

The main issue is what will happen to thousands of displaced civilians currently put up in Batticaloa district. Many of them were uprooted from their homes soon after violence escalated in April last year in Trincomalee district.

Tired of being chased from one place to another, they now want to go back and resettle in their original homes.

No one knows when that will happen.

Though the Sri Lankan authorities insist they are planning a major resettlement programme once the eastern region is cleared of rebels and landmines, many displaced people are sceptical.

¿We have to see it to believe it," says one, who did not wish to be named.

"We know what had happened to many households in Jaffna in the name of high security zones. People are still unable to return to their homes."