By South Asia analyst Alastair Lawson

The re-election of President Kumaratunga means that there is unlikely to be a speedy end to Sri Lanka's 16-year old civil war.

She reiterated her belief in the military option soon after she escaped an attempt on her life during a rally in Colombo.

The president said that Sri Lanka must be rid of what she described as terrorist forces.

At present, government forces are fighting the Tamil Tigers in and around the Jaffna Peninsula.

There are reports that the strategically important Elephant Pass, which links the peninsula with the rest of the island, is in danger of falling to the rebels, who in the last few months have captured large amounts of land in the north.

The possibility of losing yet more territory, coupled with indignation over the recent bomb attacks against the president and the opposition leader, have led many Sri Lankans to back the president's use of force.

Power base in tact

Although President Kumaratunga has been returned to power with a significantly reduced majority, the size of the vote she won is unlikely to undermine her power base.

The president is the pre-eminent force within the Peoples' Alliance party - she also holds the position of defence minister - and her authority at this stage is unlikely to be questioned.

Parliamentary elections in Sri Lanka must be held in the country by August next year, but the president has the prerogative to hold the vote any time before then.

Her comparatively poor performance in the presidential polls means that the president may be unwilling to face the voters too soon in the new year.

Some commentators say that the president's position in parliament could be enhanced by defections to her party by disaffected members of the opposition United National Party.

It is thought that several UNP MPs are frustrated by the party's second consecutive failure to win the presidency.

Circumventing parliament

But even if that does happen, the likelihood is that any hope President Kumaratunga has of pushing her plans of a constitutional settlement through parliament must be put on hold.

The Peoples' Alliance only has a narrow majority, and she needs to have two-thirds of the vote if she is to make any constitutional changes.

Some analysts have suggested that she may try to circumvent parliament by convening a constitutional assembly to force through her plans.

But the president has repeatedly stressed that any political initiative in relation to the Tamil Tigers will only be carried out from a position of strength, and recent setbacks experienced by her forces do not at present make this a realistic possibility.

For the time being at least, it looks as if Sri Lanka's civil war will continue unabated.