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Friday, October 29, 1999 Published at 12:25 GMT 13:25 UK


World: South Asia

Pakistan's new economic team

Relations with the IMF will be crucial for Pakistan

By Urdu section editor Abbas Nasir

One of the key members of the country's new economic team will be Dr Mohammed Yaqub, the outgoing governor of Pakistan's central bank, who will join General Musharraf and five other members on the ruling National Security Council.

Pakistan in crisis
Before his appointment as the central bank governor six years ago, Dr Yaqub worked for the International Monetary Fund (IMF) for nearly 20 years.

Known as an economist of repute in the IMF, he has also come in for sharp criticism recently for being seen as a party to economic decisions - some of them disastrous - of civilian governments during his tenure.

His stint at the central bank saw the bad debts of the country's main nationalised banks soar four-fold.

But those who defend him say he submitted his resignation more than once to both former prime minister Benazir Bhutto and the deposed prime minister Nawaz Sharif.


[ image:  ]
While Dr Yaqub came to Pakistan from the United States a number of years ago, the two other professionals who will play their part in running Pakistan's economy are flying in directly from Washington and New York.

Ishrat Hussain will be leaving his desk at World Bank headquarters from where he has overseen some of the Central Asian economies, to take up the post of governor of the central bank.

His colleagues at the World Bank say he is an economist capable of performing wonders if given a free hand.

Ties to banking community

Shaukat Aziz, one of the most senior international bankers of Pakistani origin, was sitting in his Citigroup office in New York when he was named Finance Minister.

He heads the global private banking group of Citibank.

Even in the past he has advised various governments in the country, but feels his advice was never heeded.

Shaukat Aziz has a strong commitment to the private sector and is said to enjoy considerable influence in the international banking community.


[ image: Previous government have avoided painful economic reform]
Previous government have avoided painful economic reform
The strong ties these key managers of the economy have with the US and the international financial community would place them at an advantage as they negotiate with Pakistan's lenders and donors.

Also, since all of them will work in a non-democratic environment, they may find it easier to implement a painful reform programme which elected governments have shied away from.

Possible friction

The IMF has already said that if the economic criteria are met it will consider continuing with its disbursements to Pakistan. regardless of the military takeover.

And if Pakistan is quickly able to demonstrate that it is serious about the reform programme then, perhaps, the economic case for helping it may overshadow the political imperative to do otherwise.

However, among the major pitfalls the analysts are identifying is the possible friction between the three technocrats who will be running the economy.

Senior bankers in Pakistan say that Dr Yaqub is a bit authoritarian in his approach.

And the other two may find it difficult to function smoothly if they don't have the necessary autonomy.

But despite this worst case scenario, experts in Pakistan appear optimistic that the economy's new managers, who have many friends in the west, may win Pakistan the necessary breathing space to set its house in order.



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