Why Nepal still faces many hurdles

By Charles Haviland
BBC News, Kathmandu

The Maoists still have to prove they can be trusted

A joint letter on arms monitoring handed to the United Nations on Wednesday by Nepal's government and Maoist rebels appears to clear a significant hurdle on the country's uncertain road to peace.

Both sides appear to have gained a little and conceded a little in their request to the UN to monitor events in the run-up to constituent assembly elections, scheduled for next year.

The Maoists, it seems, will not be separated from their arms. On the other hand the wording on the monitoring of the rebels seems marginally stronger than that applying to the army - requesting "qualified civilian personnel" for the former.

The sensitive issue of arms had become a major sticking point between the two sides, prompting Maoist deputy leader Baburam Bhattarai to declare on Monday that the peace process might collapse.

Breakthrough

Nepal is going through deeply uncertain times, but Wednesday's arms breakthrough reinforces the view that it is closer to peace than war.

Soldiers have been accused of rape and murder, and of killing unarmed protestors Q and A: Nepal's future

In the 107 days since King Gyanendra's dramatic climb-down from direct rule, Nepalis have been learning that it is easier to make grand declarations than to implement them.

But the new consensus on weapons may at last unblock a series of transitional changes announced in a key accord between government and Maoist negotiators on 16 June.

One is an interim government, which the rebels may now be free to join. Another is an interim constitution. (The panel drawing it up has just finished the draft.)

More tortuous will be plans to dissolve the restored parliament - there is no agreement on the body to replace it - and dismantle the Maoists' parallel government existing in much of Nepal.

All the planned changes have sparked arguments - perhaps no surprise when you have seven fractious parties in government, and MPs who hate the thought of giving up the new lease of life they have enjoyed since April.

Peace has largely returned to the Himalayan kingdom

In the countryside, meanwhile, structures of Maoist government continue functioning almost unaffected.

Even if this agreement on arms proves to be a breakthrough, there is an onus on the Maoists to show they can be trusted.

The rebels have probably gained in popularity since April. Many Nepalis desperately want them to be part of the solution.

Prominent civil society figures have echoed Maoist accusations that the government is half-hearted about change.

Yet there are persistent reports of Maoist bullying, extortion and abductions. In a recent incident, a woman tried to burn herself to death after Maoists allegedly tied her up and tortured her.

Revenge attacks

The United Nations blames the rebels for at least nine killings since the ceasefire began. Often the incidents are a result of the Maoists' system of summary justice which senior rebels seem unable to stop.

Their unwillingness to disarm may come from fear of vulnerability to revenge attacks.

Untested democratically, they have gained most of their political power through arms.

Questions are also being asked about other key people and their intentions.

Profile: Nepal's PM

There is Prime Minister Girija Prasad Koirala. Uttering an ever more unfashionable view, he has continued to insist that the king must retain some role in the future.

Although he also says the Constituent Assembly will ultimately decide about the monarchy, his remarks have led some politicians and journalists to suspect a pact between the ageing premier and King Gyanendra - or another between him and the army chief, who is about to retire.

There is the military itself. Since April, soldiers have been accused of rape and murder, and of killing unarmed protestors; even of torturing policemen who asked them to park properly.

Ceremonial monarchy

Human rights workers accuse the army of having a culture of impunity and of loyalty to the royal palace. It seems clear its numbers will be cut, even if there is some sort of merger with the Maoist army in the longer term.

King Gyanendra has kept a low profile

And there is - of course - the king. Nominally stripped of all his powers, he has made no public comment, scarcely even an appearance, since April.

Many Nepalis feel that as long as there remains a monarchy, there will be plots against democracy. Others share Mr Koirala's belief in a ceremonial monarchy, although that view has taken a battering this year.

Nepal has a lot of unfinished business. There is, by and large, peace in the country after a more than a decade of civil war that left thousands dead.

But there are also people yet to regain their property, confiscated by the Maoists; families wondering about the fate of their loved ones, "disappeared" by the state's armed forces, which have shown no sign of wanting to address the issue despite UN requests.

There is currently a high-level investigation into the alleged heavy-handedness of the security forces in reaction to this year's demonstration.

In future many Nepalis will be hoping for further and wider-ranging inquiries, too.

But it does seem that for now another hurdle has been cleared for the country to move onwards towards the mantra of the Constituent Assembly.

It's a goal the main protagonists agree on - but may well take some explaining to ordinary people.