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Friday, August 20, 1999 Published at 14:24 GMT 15:24 UK


World: South Asia

Sharif's 'delicate balancing act'

A powerful prime minister, but is he in charge of the army?

By Richard Galpin in Islamabad

The events unfolding in Pakistan highlight the increasingly unstable nature of of the country's politics.

Pakistan in crisis
Earlier this year, Pakistan came perilously close to all-out war with neighbouring India - a conflict, it seems, sparked by a deliberate operation of the Pakistan army to occupy strategic positions inside the Indian half of the divided territory of Kashmir.

Yet in his speeches Pakistan's Prime Minister, Nawaz Sharif, says his government has behaved with restraint and responsibility since becoming a nuclear power last year.

Gulf


Hear Richard Galpin's report on the relationship between the government and the army in Pakistan
It is this huge gulf between rhetoric and reality which fuelled speculation that the government was not in control of its armed forces, particularly when it comes to the long-disputed region of Kashmir.

It is alleged the military operation in the Kargil sector of Kashmir was launched without prior government approval.

But this is flatly denied by the governing Muslim League. The party's Vice-President Ejaz-ul-Haq says it is a rumour being spread by the opposition: "I think, as the chief of the army staff has said, that the Prime Minister was fully on board right from the beginning and I think it was a mutual decision of the government."

Approval

Leading political analysts such as Naseem Zehra agree that the army would not have moved without the approval of the Prime Minister of Pakistan. She says that it has become clear in the last two or three years that it is the civilian rulers who call the shots.

After winning the election in 1997, Prime Minister Sharif has become one of the most powerful civilian leaders in Pakistan since it emerged from a decade of military rule in 1988.


[ image: Nawaz Sharif: One of the country's most powerful leaders]
Nawaz Sharif: One of the country's most powerful leaders
During the 1990s, the army had continued to play an instrumental role in running the country, working alongside the elected governments.

But a series of constitutional amendments passed recently by Nawaz Sharif's government has shifted the balance of power.

The former air force chief, Nur Khan, says the prime minister is fully in control.

"He appoints the commander-in-chief and he can sack the commander-in-chief, service chiefs, as he wants.

"So I should have thought that at the present moment and with the two-thirds majority that he's got in parliament, if he was confident and doing a good job in governing the country, he could do what he liked."

Unprecedented

In a dramatic and unprecedented move last yaer, the prime minister did force the previous army chief, General Karamat, to resign after he had called for the army to be given a greater role in the running of the country, strongly criticising the civilian leadership.

But the prime minister's enhanced powers also bring dangers.

It seems it was primarily his decision to de-escalate the recent conflict in Kashmir, following the so-called Washington agreement. The defence analyst, Shireen Mazari, says this has left simmering resentment within the armed forces.

Ms Mazari says that a lot of people in the military are unhappy that probably for the first time Pakistan had "the Indians where we wanted them militarily in Kargil". "The military was quite confident that it could hold out against the Indians," she says.

Dictator

The memory of the long years of military rule is never far away.

In Islamabad, several thousand people recently commemorated the death of the last military dictator, General Zia ul-Haq. Prime Minister Sharif also attended the rally.

Ironically, the present government is increasingly calling on the army to sort out collapsing civilian institutions, such as the massive water and power authority.

Nur Khan warns that relying on the military for this kind of work sets a dangerous precedent.

While others would strongly dispute this, Nawaz Sharif has had to play a delicate balancing act.

But he finally seems to have overplayed his hand with the dismissal of the army chief General Musharaf, and the subsequent reaction from the army.



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