Who will oppose Musharraf now?

By Aamer Ahmed Khan BBC correspondent in Karachi

Musharraf will see no need to change political course

A military leader has once again become Pakistan's legal and constitutional president.

Gen Pervez Musharraf declared himself president in June, 2001, two years after staging a bloodless coup.

But the move remained mired in legal and constitutional controversies.

But from Gen Musharraf's point of view, all legal and constitutional niceties have now been taken care of after Senate chairman Mohammed Mian Soomro signed a bill into law on Tuesday allowing the general to keep both offices.

Mr Soomro signed in his role as acting president while Gen Musharraf is touring the Americas.

Few in Pakistan are willing to believe that Mr Soomro could have done so without express approval from Gen Musharraf.

No surprises

The move has been widely expected since September, when Gen Musharraf first hinted that he might not honour his promise to the opposition to give up the powerful post of army chief before 31 December this year.

The Islamic parties have done best when supporting the military

Observers of military politics say that anything else would have been a huge surprise.

Irrespective of how governments are structured in Pakistan, they say, the military remains the real fountainhead of political power.

Perhaps because of his critical role in the US-led war on terror, Gen Musharraf seems to have convinced the international community of this fundamental Pakistani reality.

As such, he can expect little resistance from his international allies.

Western diplomats based in Karachi and Islamabad say that the development is unlikely to create much of a stir in their home countries.

There may be some concern over what it means for Pakistani democracy.

But any such concern, they argue, is likely to be overshadowed by relief at seeing their key ally retain control of Pakistan's most powerful institution.

Mullahs' dilemma

So if there is to be any resistance to President Musharraf, it could only come from within Pakistan.

Observers say the MMA may well find it difficult to survive as a coherent alliance in such a situation

The promise to give up his army uniform was forced on President Musharraf by the six-party religious alliance, the MMA.

The MMA supported the general's amendment package which legitimised his 1999 coup on the condition that he quit the post of army chief by the end of December 2004.

The reneging general has now thrown the mullahs into a bind.

The MMA's constituency remains vociferously anti-American, often accusing President Musharraf of being an "American agent".

If the alliance fails to launch an effective protest now, it stands to lose support amongst the 3.3 million people who voted for it in the October 2002 elections.

But the prospects of launching mass protests are dampened by a new air of conciliation that has swept Pakistani politics in recent days.

Since the release of Asif Zardari, the husband of former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto, the secular parties have been steadily hinting at a new era of cooperation between the military and civilian forces.

Any quid pro quo between the secular parties and the military is likely to leave the mullahs out in the cold.

Possible split

If the secular parties, led by Ms Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party, throw their lot in with Gen Musharraf, he will no longer be dependent on support from the MMA.

The military remains the real source of power

Observers say the MMA may well find it difficult to survive as a coherent alliance in such a situation.

The MMA has flourished when it has actively supported the shifting needs of the military, for example, over backing for the Taleban in Afghanistan, or when the army has sought to increase pressure on India over the Kashmir dispute.

The largest party in the MMA, the Jamiat Ulema-e-Islam (JUI), has worked closely with secular parties, including the PPP, in the past.

In fact, Mr Zardari has often described the JUI chief, Maulana Fazlur Rehman, as a "close and personal friend."

Many in Pakistan believe he could play a pivotal role in convincing the MMA to drop its objections to President Musharraf staying on as army chief.

But if the MMA were to refuse to play ball, Mr Zardari might have it in him to engineer a split within the MMA.

Amidst all such possibilities, only one thing is clear.

If anyone is to change tack, it will have to be the political forces.

As far as Gen Musharraf is concerned, his uniform is now a legal and constitutional reality.

And he is a great believer in letting the ground reality do the talking.