What now for Pakistan?

By Aamer Ahmed Khan BBC News, Karachi

Since Gen Pervez Musharraf seized power in a coup in 1999, Pakistan has been gripped by political confrontation and polarisation.

Asif Zardari's release clears the way for Benazir Bhutto's return from exile

What then, will be the impact on this of the release after eight years of Pakistan's best known prisoner, Asif Zardari, husband of the exiled former Prime Minister Benazir Bhutto?

"I have earned a lot of credibility amongst all sorts of political groups during my time in jail," Mr Zardari told a chaotic press conference in Karachi just after his release.

"I believe that I can act as a bridge between [Benazir Bhutto's Pakistan People's Party] and other political forces."

At the same time, Mr Zardari categorically denied that his release had resulted from any kind of political deal between the PPP and President Pervez Musharraf.

Not many, including his supporters, are likely to take his denial seriously.

So why has he been released?

Rapprochement at home

The first hint of some kind of a political initiative came over a month ago when the Secretary General of the governing Pakistan Muslim League, Senator Mushahid Hussain called in parliament for the release of all political prisoners.

When asked now about Mr Zardari's release, Mr Hussain told BBC News: "I think people should take things at face value and put cynicism on the back seat for a change."

Is Musharraf looking to end his alliance with the religious parties?

Mr Hussain says the government is genuinely interested in encouraging an atmosphere of consultation and conciliation.

"Unfortunately, the politics of victimisation has taken precedence over politics of decency. We now want to revert to the latter."

Mr Hussain says the release of Mr Zardari has the full support of President Musharraf.

If conciliation is indeed the new buzzword in Pakistani politics, what possible role could one expect Mr Zardari to play?

Curiously, none of the major PPP leaders thought it fit to appear alongside Asif Zardari at his first press conference after leaving jail.

Given the party's reputation for a culture of sycophancy, most observers found their absence odd.

Could it be that party leader Benazir Bhutto is not yet clear on how much prominence and control she should allow her husband in party matters?

Intrigue is so intrinsic to Pakistani politics that mistrust, even between husband and wife, is the rule rather than an exception.

According to some observers, though, Mr Zardari's status within the PPP may not be the real determinant of his future political role.

More important, they say, are his skills as a negotiator.

Many things could now change.

For one, Mr Zardari's release has put paid to his wife's longstanding argument that her husband's incarceration was the only reason for her not to end her exile and return to Pakistan.

With both of them behind bars, there would have been no one to look after their three children she has argued.

That responsibility could now be taken up by the father if Ms Bhutto returns to Pakistan to look after her party's political fortunes.

War on terror

But some close to the PPP leadership feel that Mr Zardari's political future rests more with Gen Musharraf's current political strategy.

For once no-one is talking about Musharraf's role as army chief

Gen Musharraf, they argue, may be looking to dump the alliance of Islamic parties, the MMA, that is supporting him, because of increased pressure from the United States.

Getting rid of the mullahs, they argue, is a prerequisite for forcing the Pakistan chapter of the US-led war on terror towards its end game.

That would mean not just taking on by force the country's militant extremists, but also confronting those sympathetic to the extremists.

The need to do so may become even more urgent if there is a breakthrough in Pakistan's talks with India over the long-running Kashmir dispute.

For any breakthrough to succeed, Gen Musharraf would need strong support from Pakistan's secular forces as the religious parties seem determined not to concede an inch on Pakistan's long standing demand for a UN-backed plebiscite in Kashmir.

Laughing quietly

On the other hand, observers of army politics in Pakistan remain wary of reading too much yet into Mr Zardari's release at this time.

And while Pakistan speculates on the implications of Mr Zardari's release, Gen Musharraf will be laughing quietly to himself at how the nation has been sidetracked from the controversy over his decision to go back on his promise to step down as head of the army by the end of the year.

As they say in cricket, it is all happening.