Analysis: Little hope for Kashmir plan

By Sanjoy Majumder BBC News Online correspondent in Delhi

President Pervez Musharraf's radical proposals to bring an end to the long-festering Kashmir dispute with India have taken people on both sides of the border by surprise.

Among the many options the president has put forward is a suggestion that the territory, which is claimed by both countries, be demilitarised and jointly governed by the two nuclear-capable nations.

And in a controversial move, he has suggested Pakistan could withdraw its demand that a plebiscite be held in the disputed region, something that has been the cornerstone of its Kashmir policy for more than half a century.

It is something that has already angered many Pakistanis and will certainly disappoint hardliners who have backed the Kashmiri separatist movement.

President Musharraf listed several options for a settlement:

• The whole area could be demilitarised and made autonomous

• It could be put under the joint control of the two countries

• Some parts could be divided between the two countries and the Kashmir Valley would either become autonomous or be put under UN supervision.

There are some who believe that the proposals are truly radical and could provide a bold new initiative towards resolving the issue.

But with President Musharraf himself pointing out that Pakistan controlled only a third of Kashmir, any solution would have to find support across the border, in India.

And this appears very unlikely.

More to lose

Many believe that India would be happy for an acceptance of the status quo or the situation on the ground - that is, Pakistan retaining its third of Kashmir with India keeping the remainder.

Indian officials and analysts argue that this represents a shift from its claim on the entire territory.

Any plan for joint control over any region of Kashmir cannot happen for the next 15 years, Jasjit Singh Indian defence analyst

But while unveiling his plans on Monday, President Musharraf said he is "allergic" to such a solution.

Analysts say that despite the apparent shift in Pakistan's position on Kashmir, India has more to lose if it accepted the general's proposals.

"That will require a major shift in India's stand on Kashmir," says Samina Ahmed of the Brussels-based International Crisis Group.

Others say that a plan to jointly govern the region or even demilitarise it was impractical in the short-term.

"Any plan for joint control over any region of Kashmir cannot happen for the next 15 years," says Indian defence analyst, Jasjit Singh.

Testing the waters

So why did President Musharraf make his sudden announcement, especially as India and Pakistan are in the middle of peace talks?

The general has always demonstrated his frustration with the slow-pace of the dialogue between the two countries.

He has often publicly stated that, as a soldier, he prefers action rather than a bureaucratic approach to solving intractable problems.

He is also extremely media-savvy and adept at using the media to score points or test the political waters.

Musharraf is sometimes frustrated at the slow pace of peace talks

During an India-Pakistan summit in the city of Agra in 2001, the president held a much publicised breakfast meeting with leading Indian editors - something that irritated his hosts no end especially as it allowed him to make his point directly to Indian audiences.

But many believe that by making his thoughts public, the president will be able to gauge public opinion and the level of domestic opposition to his plans.

India, on the other hand, is likely to be extremely frustrated at what they see as yet another instance of President Musharraf ignoring existing channels of communication and talking "over their heads".

The two countries have embarked on a peace process for the better part of this year and have laid out a detailed and carefully crafted time-table of negotiations.

The president's comments also come ahead of the first visit by his prime minister, Shaukat Aziz, to India.

Privately, Indian officials say the renewed thinking on Pakistan's part is a sign that their approach on Kashmir over the years was unsustainable.

But they add that there is considerable ground to be covered before any realistic and long-term solution can be found.