Pakistan's growing problems

By Ahmed Rashid, Lahore

In his latest guest column for BBC News Online, Pakistani journalist Ahmed Rashid sees problems growing for President Pervez Musharraf.

Violence in Karachi in June has left more than 70 dead

Extremist strikes and sectarian attacks across the country together with mini-insurgencies in two of Pakistan's four provinces have increased public insecurity and criticism of President Pervez Musharraf.

All this at a time when he is seeking ways to retain both the presidency and control of the army before a 31 December deadline to give up one of these responsibilities.

The growing violence in Pakistan compounded by political instability - we have just seen the widely anticipated resignation of the prime minister - is causing immense concern to the US and Pakistan's other Western allies.

It is also creating a major credibility problem for General Musharraf's government.

Army chief ambushed

The killing of more than 70 people in Karachi in a series of sectarian massacres earlier in June has created a wave of instability in the port city.

The real answer to Pakistan's continuing political crisis is for the army to take a back seat and allow the ebb and flow of democracy Your views on this column

After Sunni extremists massacred dozens of Shias in attacks on their mosques and unknown assailants assassinated a leading Sunni cleric, riots and protests shut down the city - Pakistan's business and commercial centre - for several days.

The attacks culminated in the 10 June ambush on the convoy of Karachi Corps Commander, Lt. General Saleem Hayat in which 10 soldiers and 3 policemen were killed.

It was a clear signal that al-Qaeda and its allies in Pakistan - Sunni extremist groups and jihadi parties - were implementing an Osama bin Laden edict earlier this year to target General Musharraf's government and try and topple it.

The direct attacks on the army's top brass - General Musharraf warded off two assassination attempts in December - indicates that the government faces an unprecedented threat from extremists which it has so far failed to adequately address.

Determined to resist

Meanwhile an ongoing military offensive in Wana in South Waziristan against al-Qaeda and local Pashtun tribesmen has claimed more than 60 lives in June.

Jamali (left) referred to Musharraf as 'my boss'

More and more Wazir tribesmen appear determined to resist the government's attempt to capture or kill their al-Qaeda guests.

Pashtun politicians and experts have voiced fears of an anti-army insurgency spreading across the semi-autonomous Pashtun tribal belt that lies on the border between Afghanistan and Pakistan.

In Gilgit, in northern Pakistan, tensions between Sunnis and Shias (who are largely Ismailis or followers of the Agha Khan) in mid-June resulted in riots and protests leading to a 24 hour curfew in the city.

The curfew lasted for nearly two weeks.

It crippled normal life for ordinary people and led to huge price rises as the bazaars and traffic came to a halt.

Mounting anger

Meanwhile Balochistan province has been gripped by a wave of rocket and mortar attacks on several large towns by groups of unknown Baloch nationalists.

They are also believed to have been behind the killing of three Chinese engineers in the port town of Gwadar on 3 May.

There has also been mounting anger among Baloch politicians and tribal chiefs on the widely-circulating reports that General Musharraf was preparing to dismiss Prime Minister Jamali, a Baloch tribal chief.

The rumours also raised the hackles of politicians from the opposition and the ruling Pakistan Muslim League in all three minority provinces.

Reports that Mr Jamali would be replaced by a Punjabi, Chaudhry Shujaat Hussain, added to the strong anti-Punjab feeling in the provinces of Sind, Balochistan and the North West Frontier Province.

Pushed out

The government has been desperately searching for corrective measures.

There is no guarantee that a new prime minister will be able to do a better job at running the country

On 7 June, Sind Chief Minister Sardar Ali Mohammed Khan resigned, although there is little doubt that he was pushed out by the army.

On 13 June 13 the government said it had arrested 10 members of an al-Qaeda group in Karachi, whom it blamed for all the recent attacks in the city.

The group included two relatives of Khalid Sheikh Mohammed, the al-Qaeda number 3 who helped plan the 11 September attacks on the United States and was arrested in Pakistan in March 2003.

All this came as tensions in Islamabad between General Musharraf and Prime Minster Jamali mounted.

Mr Jamali was President Musharraf's choice for PM after the general elections nearly two years ago, because of his unassuming and non-confrontational manner.

While in office he hardly contradicted General Musharraf, frequently referring to the president as "my boss".

Differences eventually cropped up, especially over President Musharraf's reluctance to give up his uniform as army chief by December 31, 2004 which he pledged to do in a public commitment in December 2003.

He now appears to be back tracking on that commitment which Mr Jamali had resisted.

Elections discredited

Now Mr Jamali is gone.

Pashtuns in Waziristan at the funeral of rebel tribesman Nek Mohammed

But there is no guarantee that a new prime minister will be able to do a better job at running the country, when General Musharraf and the army retain total control over all policy decisions.

The pressure on Mr Jamali to step down has also discredited the very controversial elections and controlled parliamentary democracy, which the army introduced in 2002.

The real answer to Pakistan's continuing political crisis is for the army to take a back seat and allow the ebb and flow of democracy and civilian rule to function more effectively.

Politicians are unable to concentrate on the job of governance, when they are constantly having to look at over their shoulder at the military.

Here are a selection of views you sent about this column.

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First the column shows a very bleak picture of Pakistan and finally the writer came to conclusion that only solutions lies in applying real democracy in pakistan. I wonder how democracy will do this when anti-American feelings in the society are far more greater than anti-Musharraf thinking. The politician performance in democratic era from 1989 to 1999 will fuel alarms when we see the current situation thoroughly while putting our vested interests aside. The security situation is not that bad as the writer suggests.It is certainly exemplary when we compare it with the region's other countries like India, Sri Lanka or Nepal where mature civil wars tarnish societies in most part of their countries. I believe Pakistan doesn't need real democracy at the moment...
Tameem Usmani, Pakistan

Unfortunately until Pakistan's so called politicians (landlords, industrialists, & mullahs) clean up their act, Mr Musharraf is the next best thing for Pakistan. Pakistan is not ready for real democracy. All it does is put another blood sucking landlord in power to loot what ever is left of Pakistan and its people, if any. Dedicated to people who have left Pakistan due to no hope.
Syed , USA

For democracy and civilian rule to function effectively, Pakistan needs politicians who do not run for office to line their own pockets, but run as servants of the people. Politicians in Pakistan seem to think that the people are there to serve them, while it should be the other way around. Only when we have men of honor and integrity running for office, men who actually get things done for their constituencies, and who have not been tainted by the corruption that reigns in Pakistani politics, will our political problems be solved. I rather have a corrupt General in power, who I know has not been elected, than an elected but corrupt politician. At least then, I will not feel like my intelligence has been insulted and I will not be living in the fool's paradise that has been Pakistani democracy.
Hessam Khaleeli, Pakistan

Travelling to Pakistan at least twice a year for the last 6 years, my observation is that a sustainable framework of economic development is what the country has been crying out for. That the last three administrations were inept, corrupt and thoroughly discredited did not permit this. Who cares who brings this, be it dictatorship or democracy, is lost on the people. But the key is unless the average Pakistani (man & woman) has a decent education, nothing will change.
Nadeem Cheshti, Uk

The comments attributed to this journalist are taking a likely but pessimistic outcome of the current situation. But guess what, his solution is to let the (former corrupt) politicians take the helm. Before I was sceptical but somewhat open to listen to real ideas and solutions for bringing prosperity to Pakistan. But I believe that as long as media manipulation is existent, then indeed Pakistan has a bleak future. Painting such a picture indeed serves the immediate financial needs of such journalists and guarantees them future media contracts. Nothing is perfect in Pakistan, but at least it trying its very best, without the help of the inherently corrupt politicians of the past.
Tony Onne, Uk

The Commonwealth re-introduced Pakistan to their club, the US called Pakistan its 'best non NATO friend' along with Egypt, Israel and South Korea and what is Pakistan do in exchange, sack its PM. Hypocrisy in uniform rules Pakistan
Mohammed Qazilbash, Canada

Well, having lived in Pakistan for most of my life, I know that the so-called 'Democracy' has not and will not work. 'Martial Law' has proven to be far more successful. As long as corruption is prevalent in Pakistan, Democracy will never succeed. The best route is to implement a truly Islamic govt., which is unlikely to happen in the country where corruption is common, unfortunately. When the army took charge in 1999, I was relieved in a way! It sound ironic, but it's true! Democracy is just not going to work!
Ashfaq Juna, UK

The history of pakistan is a witness that the Army had never tried to stabilize the democratic institutions and they will never do it in the future. If the politicians perform their duties honestly and do not become puppets in the hands of army then they will never dare to rule our country. Pakistan Zindabad
Ahmed Yousafzai, United Kingdom

Musharraf is trying to prove that there is real democracy prevailing in Pakistan. How can he do so when he can remove prime minister easily and still sitting and holding two top positions. This is all sham and Pakistanis need to vote to put their choice not by People Who Have Lust Of Power. Remember Democracy is For the people, By the people, & to the people.
Balesh Srivastava, Canada

I used to live in Gilgit and feel sad for the people who are suffering at the hands of power hungry people using religion as a cover for their own selfish desire for power. May God help Pakistan at this critical hour to serve God by serving humanity with love and compassion.
Jim Mather, U.S.

I can't see that democracy is an answer to all the problems Pakistan is facing. Pakistan has tested the taste of democracy, at the moment the taste is sour, but democracy has been a bitter thing for Pakistan. So by just writing the columns, Mr Ahmed Rashid can't put all the blame on the present government. Not every one has been satisfied ever from any government. The people now yelling on this government have been the people crying on all the previous governments.
Humayun Ajay, Germany

Pakistan is heading towards splitting - , a seperate Sindh, a seperate Baluchistan and a separate West-Punjab will become a reality within a very short space of time
George Masai, Uk

I disagree with Ahmed Rashid's assertion that in order for Pakistan to get through the current political crisis in the country, the army "has to take a back seat" and allow "civilian rule to function more effectively". The fact of the matter is that in Pakistan the politicians cannot be trusted to be left alone and run the affairs of the country. They are way too incompetent and corrupt - just look at the 1990's: there were four separate civilian government's throughout this period and not one government managed to to serve a full term in office due to rampant corruption, incompetence and mismanagement. Pakistan has to weather the current political crisis and build a political platform which would allow the military to keep a check on civilian governments in the future (e.g. the present idea of the NSC). If at some point in the future the politicians can show that they have matured and are capable of managing Pakistan efficiently and in a democratic manner then the role of the military can be reconsidered.
Anopa Mckenzie, United Kingdom

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