Afghan election notebook 2 - Karzai's hometown

By Andrew North BBC correspondent in Kandahar

The "jirga" tactic of poll meetings is far safer for campaigners

Bakers, birds in cages and Bollywood movies - the real Indian embassy in the country, Afghans often joke.

Kandahar bazaar has an eye-catching mix of shops.

Here are gold- and silver-coloured cooking pots, piled high. Then, several shops stacked only with car radios, followed by a line of butchers - red and brown hunks of meat hanging outside.

The bazaar's main street seizes your attention. That is more than can be said for the election campaign here.

As elsewhere in Afghanistan, the only clues that it is happening are small posters of candidates stuck on walls and doorways - most beaming with the face of the local man, Hamid Karzai.

This is the Afghan leader's home city and heartland of his fellow Pashtuns - the country's largest ethnic group.

Speeches

There is a campaign underway - just not a very public one.

Haji Mohammed backs Qanuni - Ahmed Karzai, his brother Hamid

The secret to understanding it is that campaign teams are effectively getting the voters to do the work for them.

"Our campaign is not the type where we go to the people, they come here," says the man largely running President Karzai's election bid in the south, his brother Ahmed Wali Karzai.

Instead of travelling out to villages and towns, the Karzai campaign has been inviting tribal chiefs and elders to visit them in Kandahar for meetings or "jirgas".

These "influential people from each district go back to their villages and talk to the people," says Ahmed Karzai, suggesting who they should vote for.

About 100 or so elders from Kandahar province are here at the Karzai campaign offices, turbans carefully tied as they sit listening to speeches.

Lunch of mutton and rice follows.

We are people of jirgas... This is our way for 1,000 years Ahmed Karzai

But these gatherings are unlikely to see the president himself - he is not expected to travel to Kandahar before polling day, because of security concerns.

He was nearly assassinated here two years ago.

That is another advantage of the "jirga" tactic - it is also much safer for campaign workers.

After the jirga is over, the elders head home to make their recommendations. But does this system really allow people a free choice?

"Every country has its own way," says Ahmed Karzai.

"This is the way Afghans have decided their future, in history. We are people of jirgas. The jirga comes and people follow that, and we will decide again like this. This is our way for 1,000 years."

With these tactics, the Karzai campaign is certain it has the region in the bag.

"Not only Kandahar," Ahmed Karzai says.

"So far, 95% is absolutely guaranteed - there are people in Helmand [province], without anyone going to them, and they have announced they're supporting the president."

'Unity and peace'

Yet although few doubt Hamid Karzai will win all five southern provinces of Kandahar, Zabol, Uruzgan, Helmand and Nimroz, this is not a one horse race.

Karzai supporters say 95% support is guaranteed

To some people's surprise, his main challenger nationwide - Yunus Qanuni - is also organising here.

Some prominent people have come out for him - including Khan Mohammed Khan, the man President Karzai dismissed as Kandahar security commander a few months ago.

He was not happy with his consolation post - police chief - and is now backing Mr Qanuni.

At his campaign office, they have just finished their supporters' meeting.

Things are going well, says Haji Fida Mohammed, Mr Qanuni's campaign manager.

"It's still not known, but we expect to get 60 or 70% of the vote."

Given that Mr Qanuni - a northern Tajik - is strongly disliked by many of the southern Kandaharis, this appears confidence in the extreme.

But Haji Mohammed also says he would be happy if Mr Qanuni did a deal with Mr Karzai and withdrew. "We want unity and peace," he says.

Rocket-proof bunkers

The big concern here in Kandahar is protecting the election process, in what is the most volatile region of the country, the heartland of support for the Taleban, which has vowed to disrupt the elections.

Kandahar could be more exposed, because all the votes from the southern provinces will be counted here. And it is likely to take weeks.

Kandahar is quieter now - the lull before the storm?

The counting centre will be in the main stadium, which less than three years ago was being used by the Taleban for public executions.

Extraordinary preparations are underway there - reinforced containers being dug into the ground as rocket-proof bunkers and blast-proof concrete installed outside.

All approach roads will be sealed off by polling day on 9 October.

Talatbek Masadykov, the UN head in southern Afghanistan, says it is concerned about the threat of violence - especially in Zabol and Uruzgan, where the Taleban-led insurgency has been most intense.

There, American troops will be essential to keeping the process on track.

But Mr Masadykov says the fact that insurgents were unable to stop voter registration is a sign of hope.

Still, Taleban intimidation means most expect turnout in the south to be lower than other parts of the country.

There are also increasing reports of some campaign teams putting pressure on voters.

Mr Masadykov says the UN has heard such allegations "and we are trying to verify these cases, but so far, it has been very difficult".

In recent weeks, Kandahar has been relatively quiet.

As the election approaches, the question many in the city are asking is - is this a sign that the polls will pass off more peacefully than anyone was hoping, or is it the lull before the storm?

Notebook 1 - what's happening?