Musharraf's uniform divides Pakistan

By Zaffar Abbas BBC correspondent in Islamabad

Pakistan's nascent parliamentary democracy is once again going through the motions - this time on the issue of President Pervez Musharraf's military uniform.

Musharraf has indicated he may hang on to his uniform

So bitter has been the debate that it has involved almost the entire country, with rival sides even questioning each other's patriotism.

In some circles, fears were being expressed that it might lead to a new phase of political instability.

The debate has dominated politics in Pakistan since parliamentary elections in October 2002.

After a brief lull, it has again taken centre-stage with the general indicating he may continue to hold the dual posts of head of state and army chief for an unspecified period.

This is not only in contrast to a pledge he made in a televised speech in December last year but, according to opposition groups, also violates the constitution's 17th amendment.

Constitution changed

General Musharraf seized power in a bloodless coup in October 1999 but was forced by international pressure and the Supreme Court to call parliamentary elections three years later.

Supporters say Musharraf needs his uniform to fight hardliners

A civilian government was installed but, through an arbitrary change in the constitution, he retained the posts of army chief and president.

It was after several months of protests and boycotts by opposition groups that President Musharraf agreed to reconsider his decision.

Although mainstream opposition groups refrained, an alliance of six Islamic groups entered into dialogue with the governing Pakistan Muslim League and struck a deal in the form of the constitution's 17th amendment.

The move legitimised the military takeover of 1999 and the subsequent actions of the military ruler and, as a concession to the opposition, set 31 December 2004 as the cut-off date for President Musharraf to give up his military post.

Opinion divided

But a systematic campaign by some government ministers and recent comments by President Musharraf clearly suggest the military ruler is having second thoughts.

His own interpretation of the 17th amendment is that there is nothing there that bars him from remaining army chief for another five years.

Once a leader of his stature refuses to honour his commitment without offering any credible explanations, it will be difficult to promote trust Hasan-Askari Rizvi, defence analyst

He has recently said that 96% of Pakistanis are in favour of him holding both offices - a claim openly challenged by the opposition.

Legal opinion has remained divided on the exact interpretation of the 17th amendment on the military post issue.

Even though most experts believe the president has no choice but to step down as army chief at the cut-off date, lawyers sympathetic to the regime point towards a loophole in the constitution that might provide a window of opportunity for him.

Security

The big question is why, if at all, the president would like to hang on to his military position.

Perhaps the main reason is that even after having introduced his own model of controlled democracy, he knows that the real source of strength lies in commanding the military.

Musharraf may believe his real power source is in the military

Already faced with intense criticism from the opposition, President Musharraf feels as a civilian head his opponents would try to undo the reforms he has introduced in the past five years.

But according to a leading defence analyst, Hasan-Askari Rizvi, while the president can retain both offices on the basis of technicalities, it is unlikely to secure his stay in power.

"Once a leader of his stature refuses to honour his commitment without offering any credible explanations, it will be difficult to promote trust in the present political atmosphere," says Mr Rizvi.

But President Musharraf's supporters argue that he should not only remain in uniform until democracy stabilises, but also handle the highly complicated campaign against al-Qaeda and other Islamic extremists.

In the past five years, President Musharraf has proved he can play his cards well and can keep people guessing about his next move.

Perhaps the first clear sign of his plans will be known when two senior army generals retire in October and he appoints the new chairman of the joint chiefs of staff committee and the vice-chief of army staff.

And there are some people who still believe that President Musharraf may surprise everyone by living up to his commitment to step down as army chief.