Analysis: Can Shaukat Aziz deliver?

By Zaffar Abbas
BBC correspondent in Islamabad

Aziz (right) is widely seen as Musharraf's man

The reins of power have once again been handed over in Pakistan. And once again, it's a man hand-picked by the country's military ruler, Gen Pervez Musharraf.

And though it has all been done constitutionally, the question being asked is whether a political novice like Shaukat Aziz has the competence and capability to deal with the country's complex political and law and order situation, or even bigger issues like combating al-Qaeda-backed terrorism.

Pakistan's chequered political history has seen more prime ministers than the number of years the country has practised genuine democracy.

Since the country's creation 57 years ago, political upheavals, palace intrigues and martial laws have never allowed a single elected government to complete its term, and there has never been a single smooth transfer of power from one elected government to another.

Enormous challenges

So when Shaukat Aziz was taking the oath as the country's 21st prime minister, he must have been aware of the pitfalls.

He [Shaukat Aziz] will make absolutely no difference to the country's body-politic Chaudhry Nisar, opposition lawmaker

For instance, he knows full well that even though there is an elected parliament, the shots are still called by the country's all-powerful president, Gen Musharraf. And in order to survive, he has to honour the president's decisions.

Still, the challenges that Mr Aziz faces in his new role are enormous.

Though he has already proved himself as a competent finance minister, transporting the country from the brink of economic collapse to relative prosperity, hopes are now being raised that he will bring in much-needed foreign investment and a real economic boom in the country.

However, a much bigger challenge will be to deal with the country's ever worsening political situation and the rise of Islamic extremism.

Many believe Mr Aziz may try to tackle the economic political crisis with some seriousness, but would prefer to leave it to the president and the army to deal with the issue of terrorism.

'No authority'

The fact is that nobody contests Mr Aziz's competence as an economist.

But he is a technocrat, and as a coalface politician, he is seen as a novice.

But according to a former minister and opposition MP, Chaudhry Nisar, that is no handicap in today's Pakistan, because the real authority resides with the country's all-powerful president.

He says Mr Aziz will only serve at the pleasure of the military ruler.

"He will make absolutely no difference to the country's body politic," Mr Nisar says.

"And I think if or when he crosses the line, he will face the same fate as [former Prime Minister] Zafarullah Khan Jamali."

Controlled democracy

Political observers say Mr Aziz has worked with President Musharraf for long enough to understand that he has been made prime minister in an environment of controlled democracy.

In this system, the chief of the army is the president, and he has the power to dismiss the government and parliament at will.

And then there is the National Security Council, in which senior military commanders sit with civilian leaders to oversee the performance of parliament and the government.

In this situation, any attempt to overstep his authority could be disastrous.

But those who know Mr Aziz say that at some point he would still like to assert his authority - if not for any other reason than to prove that he is nobody's stooge or yes-man.

And that will be the real test of his ability and authority. Until then, he will be regarded as somebody who is only a second fiddle to the military ruler.