Candidates line up to tackle Karzai

By Andrew North BBC correspondent in Kabul

Security fears will prevent Karzai visiting much of the nation

Afghans are due to choose their first-ever democratically elected leader on 9 October.

Despite continuing security fears, the build up for the elections is well under way.

The voter registration process was completed in most areas by 15 August, although it continued beyond that in the most insecure southern provinces.

About 10.5 million names are registered to vote, from an estimated 10 million voters. The United Nations, which is organising the polls, admit there have been many multiple registrations.

A more accurate picture of the size of the electorate will only emerge on polling day, when checks will be in place to prevent multiple voting.

Run-off

Another key stage in the process is the publication by the Afghan election body of the final candidate list - 18 people in all, down from 23 on the initial list.

But that is still a cause of some concern for the best known candidate Hamid Karzai - still officially Afghanistan's interim president.

Voter registration is now 90% complete, the UN says

He is the clear frontrunner.

The question is whether he can win first time round, or whether he'll have to go to a run-off two weeks later.

The mathematics are obvious - with 17 other opponents, Mr Karzai's chances of garnering more than 50% of the vote are much lower, even if some of them get just a handful of votes.

But some of his challengers could pull in large chunks of votes by tapping into ethnic their support-base.

There is no doubt that Mr Karzai's supporters would prefer a first-round victory. They are hoping the number of challengers will drop still further, with other candidates withdrawing.

The president's US and other western backers are also hoping to avoid a second round.

"Of course a first round win for Karzai is better," says one diplomat who asked not to be identified, "it would give him the nationwide mandate he needs."

What is more, the United Nations now says that if there is a second round, it may not be possible to produce the result until November.

An 9 October victory would also give him "much more latitude in selecting his cabinet," says Vikram Parekh, senior analyst with the International Crisis Group in Kabul.

Ethnic dimension

So who are President Karzai's most serious challengers?

Fahim (L), dropped by Karzai, is now thought to back Qanuni (R)

The three candidates thought likely to win most votes after Mr Karzai are Yunus Qanuni, Abdul Rashid Dostum and Mohammed Mohaqiq - in each case largely because of their ethnic powerbase.

The bulk of Mr Karzai's support is likely to come from his own Pashtun constituency - Afghanistan's largest ethnic group. But his supporters say he will try to portray himself as a national figure.

However, there will be no avoiding the ethnic dimension in these elections, analysts say.

Yunus Qanuni is a leading figure in the Northern Alliance movement which overthrew the Taleban in 2001 with US support.

He is also thought to have the backing of the Northern Alliance leader and defence minister Mohammed Fahim - who was dropped by Mr Karzai as his running mate.

Mr Qanuni can rely on the support of the Tajiks of his native Panjshir region, north of Kabul, although many election watchers doubt his appeal nationwide.

Similarly, General Dostum, a veteran strongman and survivor of Afghanistan's wars, can bank on the votes of many of his fellow Uzbeks in the north. But General Dostum, who leads the Jumbish party, is trying to widen his appeal, says Vikram Parekh. "He's had good advice in putting his slate together."

He points to his choice of a woman - Safiqa Habibi - as his running mate, who is also a Pashtun.

Conservative

Like most of Mr Karzai's challengers, Mohammed Mohaqiq is running as an independent, but he is the leader of the Shia Hazaras of central Afghanistan.

Uzbek Dostum has a Pashtun woman as his running mate

He has a very loyal following there, and is also likely to get many votes from Hazaras still living as refugees in neighbouring Iran.

Preparations are under way to allow Afghan refugees in both Iran and Pakistan to vote on 9 October.

President Karzai has chosen another Hazara, Karim Khalili, as his second running mate, although he is not seen as having the clout to take many votes away from Mr Mohaqiq.

As the only female candidate, Dr Massouda Jalal will get plenty of attention. But at the moment, she is not expected to win many votes.

Another important candidate is Ahmad Shah Ahmadzai, deputy to the former mujahideen leader Abdul Rasul Sayyaf and a religious conservative. As a Pashtun, he will be able to take some votes away from Mr Karzai in the south and east.

Analysts say he may also appeal to anti-American sentiments in those regions.

Fending off the challenge of so many candidates will not be Hamid Karzai's only concern, when the campaign proper starts on 7 September.

Security fears are likely to prevent him visiting many parts of the country. Even when he does make campaign stops, his American bodyguards are likely to severely restrict the access people have to him.

Hamid Karzai may be the clear favourite, it is not going to be an easy victory.